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To: navymom1
He couldn't possibly use all these same questions in 2016 as they wouldn't have fit.
13 questions he uses ?...
i have a bone to pick about a few -> especially #11. how about Syria and the peace agreements with Israel ?
and the GDP bounce-back has to mean something in #6
and not sure how he came to that conclusion in #12 ?

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the House than it did after the previous midterm elections. False. “Republicans lost the U.S. House midterms in 2018.”

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. True. “No Republicans challenged Trump.”

3. Incumbency: The sitting president is running for re-election. True. “Doesn’t look like he’s stepping down.”

4. Third Party: There is no major third-party challenge. True. “Despite claims by Kanye West to be running, this is a two-party race.”

5. Short-Term Economy: The economy during the election season is not in recession. False. “The [coronavirus] pandemic has pushed the economy into recession.”

6. Long-Term Economy: Real annual per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the two previous terms. False. “The pandemic has caused such negative GDP growth in 2020 that the key has turned false.”

7. Policy Change: The incumbent causes major changes in national policy. True. ”Through his tax cut, but mostly through his executive orders, Trump has fundamentally changed the policies of the Obama era.”

8. Social Unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the campaign. False. “There has been considerable social unrest on the streets, with enough violence to threaten the social order.”

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandals. False. “As I predicted, Trump was impeached. Plus, he has plenty of other scandals.”

10. Foreign or Military Failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. True. “We’ve had some very difficult moments with Donald Trump, but so far, true.”

11. Foreign or Military Success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. False. “While Trump hasn’t had any big, splashy failures, he hasn’t had any major successes either.”

12. Incumbent Charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic. False. “Trump is a great showman, but he only appeals to a narrow slice of Americans.”

13. Challenger Charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic. True. “Biden is a decent, empathetic person, but he’s not inspirational or charismatic.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/05/biden-will-beat-trump-says-historian-who-predicted-every-race-since-1984.html
1,806 posted on 10/31/2020 9:37:36 PM PDT by stylin19a ( 2016 - Best.Election.Of.All.Times.Ever.In.The.History.Of.Ever)
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To: stylin19a
Wow thought out post! Thank you for taking the time to do this. I just listened to the guy and went with my gut: Suppression poll tactic. Yes, he did get me down some, but we have a family situation that has started to spiral. So my mood was ripe for his tactic. Sadly, we are dealing with a parent with dementia who has become abusive. 😰 So ready to put our President back in the Oval Office and finish the job!
1,809 posted on 11/01/2020 4:15:52 AM PST by navymom1
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