Murkowski’s nod gives Barrett extra boost for Supreme Court

ap ^ | ap

[Political Junkie Too]

Why are you linking a nearly two-month-old poll?

-PJ

[Cathi]

Because the October one which showed the exact same thing is on a pay wall and I am not a subscriber. Google “Collins and Gideon”, you will find it.

[RevelationDavid]

Please Christian brother and sister...pray RIGHT NOW...STOP what you are doing..kneel down and ask God in the name of Jesus to ‘restore America’ and protect President Trump. Do It NOW... this IS the most powerful HOPE for our Republic...Please ...... PRAY RIGHT NOW.

May God Bless America!

I will repost this MOST critical post ‘repeatedly’ from now until the election. Pray that we all truly begin to pray.

Your brother, in the love of Jesus, RevelationDavid.

[Political Junkie Too]

Now I'm confused.

That poll showed Collins at -1%.

In September:

• Colby College had her down -4.
• Quinnipiac had her down -12.
• The New York Times had her down -5.
• The Boston Globe had her down -5.
• Pan Atlantic had a poll in October that has her down -7.

-PJ

[Cathi]

“Now I’m confused.”

Nothing surprising....almost all the polls these days have significant variance. Polling has been in crisis for the last 10 years by the pollsters own admissions.

People no longer respond to polls (response rates are now down to 1-2%) so pollsters can no longer get a “representative sample” which is how you get the result they got in 2016 which stunned the country. You are going to get the same thing this time, so hang on...:-)

Dornslife has Trump at -11

Rasmussen has Trump at -3

[Political Junkie Too]

I'm aware of the state of polling. I was confused by your reliance on what looks like an outlier poll.

-PJ

[Cathi]

What you are calling outlier polls, as you put it, are the ones that had it right in 2016 and they are the ones that have it right this time, too.

The consensus polls for Collins are the polls which I would never “rely” on (because they have been consistently wrong) like

Quinnipiac -12;
NYT -5

....just like they were the consensus polls for Trump in 2016 and consistently wrong.

And they are the consensus polls for Trump this time, too.

Quinnipiac -10
NYT -9

As I said, polling is broken. Trump is not going to lose by 9-12 despite the fact that almost all the consensus polls say he will; and Collins is not going to lose by 5-12.

[Political Junkie Too]

I agree with you about Trump. I've been following the polls very closely. I'm just concerned about the Maine polls for Collins, because she is a distinct personality that seems out of step with the direction that Maine has been heading in.

Just look at the election of Angus King and the nomination of Sara Gideon. Do you see this as a sign that Maine is moving away from Collins and in the direction of placing Maine state legislators into federal positions?

-PJ

[Cathi]

Yes, I agree about Collins being out of step. But, she has the advantage of being the incumbent and the advantage of Trump possibly being able to drag her over the finish line if he runs strongly.

She ran weakly during her last election campaign, too. But, pulled it out at the end.

[trebb]

Things have changed - she could no longer mount a write-in campaign and win.