Posted on 10/07/2020 8:16:34 AM PDT by bort
Stat of the day: In North Carolina, men are outpacing women in vote-by-mail (VBM) return rate 34.1% to 31.6%! In Georgia, the male VBM return rate is 20.5% to 19.3% for women. What makes Georgia's numbers surprising is that a woman, Senator Loeffler, is on the ballot, as well as a well-funded black senate candidate (which will cause increased voting among black females). And who do you think benefits from strong turnout by men?
And how about all of those college kids and other young voters who took to the streets in the BLM movement? Surely these young idealists are flooding the US Mail with their ballots as part of this record wave of VBM voting?
In Georgia, out of roughly 300,000 VBM ballots returned, an underwhelming 7,000 were from 18-25 y/olds, which means that a whopping (sarcasm) 3K to 4K "young Democrats" who pledged to "take the fight to Trump" have mustered up the energy to check some boxes and mail in a ballot. Keep in mind that Georgia had RIOTS for several days. Question: Why are pollsters using models predicting record youth turnout when the actual, raw numbers tell a different story at this point?
In North Carolina, 18-25 y/olds cast 20,000 votes out of just under 400,000, which means that 9K to 10K Democrat youngsters were fired up to vote. As a percentage, 18-25 y/olds have returned 5.1% of all VBM, while 26-40 y/olds have cast an abysmal 12.1%. To wit: 83% of VBMs that have been cast in NC have been by voters over the age of 40, mostly seniors. Question: On a scale of 1 to 10, how nervous is the Biden campaign when they see that early voting Democrats are overwhelmingly seniors?
Finally, NC VBM returns for black voters are at just under 16%, whereas black voters make up 21.5 % of NC's electorate. Obama LOST NC by 1 point in 2012 when 23% of the NC electorate was black. Question: Why do you think Michelle Obama just released a video calling Trump a racist, and the Democrats/media are manically focused on "white supremacy"?
The current Democrat lead in VBM ballots requested and returned is akin to a Corvette equipped with a Pinto rebuilt engine. On the surface it looks great, but underneath the hood the Democrats know they have problems. Folks, this is a BASE election. It is not a "registered voter" election like the pollsters are predicting.
PING
” Folks, this is a BASE election. It is not a “registered voter” election like the pollsters are predicting.”
To some extent, isn’t every election a base election? Turn out is the key to winning, not polls or numbers of registereds.
I’m going to state obvious and why should anyone get an advance notice as to where they need to improve? This is so crooked.
To some extent, isn’t every election a base election?
Yes. I use the term “base election” to basically say the campaigns aren’t worried about persuading the other side or the very few undecideds but rather they are trying to jack up numbers among friendly constituencies.
Ping - here are Speedy’s numbers.
http://www.electionczar.com/floridaearlyvote.html
10/07/20: REPs - 269,817, DEMs - 497,324, lead of 227,507 for DEMs, 52.4% to 28.5%
10/06/20: REPs - 197,449, DEMs - 372,096, lead of 174,647 for DEMs, 53.0% to 28.1%
10/05/20: REPs - 157,855, DEMs - 305,982, lead of 148,127 for DEMs, 53.5% to 27.6%
10/04/20: REPs - 145,798, DEMs - 282,169, lead of 136,371 for DEMs, 53.7% to 27.7%
10/03/20: REPs - 126,799, DEMs - 244,806, lead of 118,007 for DEMs, 53.5% to 27.7%
10/02/20: REPs - 92,935, DEMs - 183,972, lead of 91,037 for DEMs, 54.0% to 27.2%
10/01/20: REPs - 65,516, DEMs - 126,602, lead of 61,086 for DEMs, 53.4% to 27.7%
09/30/20: REPs - 36,075, DEMs - 70,349, lead of 34,274 for DEMs, 53.3% to 27.3%
09/29/20: REPs - 9,330, DEMs - 18,190, lead of 8,860 for DEMs, 53.5% to 27.5%
09/28/20: REPs - 2,272, DEMs - 3,555, lead of 1,283 for DEMs, 47.7% to 30.5%
09/27/20: REPs - 2,165, DEMs - 3,411, lead of 1,246 for DEMs, 47.9% to 30.4%
09/26/20: REPs - 1,983, DEMs - 3,184, lead of 1,201 for DEMs, 48.2% to 30.0%
09/25/20: REPs - 1,273, DEMs - 2,386, lead of 1,113 for DEMs, 51.2% to 27.3%
Forgot to ping you to above!
ping.
I didn’t do an in-depth analysis yesterday because someone beat me to the NC reg numbers, but I’ll get around to doing crosstabs on it today.
I’m waiting to get it all loaded into a database as I write... many, many millions of rows to process...
You are doing a great job. Keep it up.
Funny. I said the student shortfall would be 30%. That means in early voting they need to be UP 30% from 2016. Instead, it appears they are only up 5% so far over 2016. Is this correct?
Got them.
thanks!
Yes a get out your base election.
Polls show Biden ahead so his base comes out to be part of the winning team. If polls show he would lose, then people stay home in a oh well why bother mode. Biden needs help getting the base out as it is largely VBM for them negating their drag people to the polls machine they have had for years. VBM has other problems for Joe, as a number of those ballots are void due to errors in filling it out, while vote in person ballots are good.
Trump’s base will crawl across broken glass to vote for him no matter what.
The Rats were in the process of cannibalizing their election day vote in favor of the mystical “Vote By Mail” vote. Unfortunately it seems that they have abandoned that strategy. Still, there was probably damage already done
I don’t have those numbers, unfortunately. Here’s what I do have:
1) In 2008, 543K/752K (60.3%) voted in 18-25 y/o range.
2) In 2012, 467K/847K (55.1%) voted in 18-25 y/o range
3) In 2016, 460K/869K (53%) voted in 18-25 y/o range
I don’t have the number but I’m assuming roughly 900K in 18-25 y/o range are registered for 2020.
BTW, the 26 to 40 group: 2008 (63%), 2012 (58%) and 2016 (59%) turnout percentages.
The youngsters will be mobilized the week after the election.
I read an article on student turnout in the 2018 midterms that said that turnout for students was 40%. Thing is, if your numbers are right in terms of being about “students” this means the total shortfall in absolute #s grows, and makes it MORE likely that Trump would win the pop vote.
You are correct. IMHO, the “student vote” has already been decimated because generally students get registered in high school classrooms, many of which are shut down in blue-leaning cities and suburbs, and by the Dems not doing door-to-door canvassing. The Dems always out-register Republicans in a presidential year, but this year the reverse has happened. If Biden loses by a hair, this will be looked at as the dumbest campaign decision in history to not go door to door and register voters. Democrats have a much more transient set of voters, especially in minority communities. They need door-to-door operations to ID their voters.
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