“(accurate and fair??)”
i don’t think so ... supposedly the market trend represents a collective belief in the viability of future economic growth (or contraction), but then there’s the whole herd principle of panic vs greed of individual and corporate traders, and program trading which amplifies the hell out of market trends ...
my personal gut feeling is that the market will skyrocket when Trump is elected and will crash bigly if biden is elected, the latter pointing to a major depression as well as being a major factor in precipitating said depression ...
one counterargument might be that there is no alternative safe harbor to the us stock market. europe comes in at a somewhat distant second. the china market is simply too corrupt to compete effectively. so a lot of money supply sloshing around in the world ends up in the us stock market by default. the actual stock prices are in part a measure of some form of international investment money velocity as much as anything else. biden might depress the velocity component but it will take him a while to degrade the us open market to the level of europe (more so to the level of china).
(accurate and fair??)