Posted on 10/06/2020 7:03:48 PM PDT by SteveH
“How so?”
You set a stop-loss at five percent on a stock that has volatility.
Some of the reaction will be determined by whether Biden wins and carries the Senate to turn Democrat while retaining a Democrat House majority. This would be the most damaging because they would eliminate the filibuster and reverse the Trump tax cuts and capital gains rate reductions.
Any result that creates another 4 years of divided government would probably result in a big market surge since government (other than the Fed) would be neutered from doing any harm.
My own theory is that anything you try to do is probably already priced into the market and in the long run the levels of the market are driven by expectations for future earnings which are controlled by consumer behavior, not government. Some sectors may be pressured like drug, defense, and oil companies but even Biden understands without tax revenue and growth his administration is doomed.
I have more faith in greed than I do in Joe Biden or any Democrat keeping their word to their voters.
Stocks price in the next 5 years.
Absolutely true. I did that a few weeks ago. I am tired of earning the same money over and over again. I converted 2/3 of the portfolio into bonds and have just about broke even, or a little ahead over the past 4 weeks.
My first concern is the turmoil approaching regardless of the election outcome. No matter who wins, there will be legal battles and uncertainty.
Covid also drives uncertainty. Will there be a second wave this fall? Will there be a viable vaccine? Are the fearmongers controlling that narrative? The stock market dives under uncertainty.
My second concern is if biden wins, the whole economy will shift away from the standards that brought a bull market during Trump.
There is also a concern that the value of a stock portfolio will be diminished if the dimrats mess with the IRA/401 process and/or social security.
These effects will go way beyond the spring and summer of next year if the dims win.
If Trump wins but the republicans lose control of the senate, there will be never ending attempts to impeach him and the country's business will take a back seat for at least the next two years.
If Trump wins and keeps the senate, then I am full bore back into the market. It will roar. What I will have lost is the difference from now to then, but I will have the opportunity to make big gains to compensate for that.
I don’t use stop loss orders because I find the market makers see them and blow through them on a quick dip to wipe out the small investors/suckers.
“If a market maker can see your order they will take your stock.”
I just wrote the same thing. It is low hanging fruit to the bloodsuckers.
I’m puzzled by this. If it looked like Biden won, or was even possibly able to win, why would you wait until January to sell? Would you really bank on investors holding until Biden was sworn in? When he’s promising nearly a trillion in more taxes?
I’d be out of the market as swiftly as possible. I’d have to assume at least a 20% drop in dividends and profits (and quite a bit more for industries that liberals love to attack) as you know Pelosi has a drawer full of Obamacare-esque bills waiting to push through if they somehow manage the trifecta of house, senate and presidency.
Add in the promise for virtually shutting down the country again, we’re talking the 20% drop from late summer earnings, not current earnings.
That’s deep recession territory with a decade to claw out.
Nahh, man, a Biden presidency will be fully priced into the market no later than the 7th of November. And then the sheeple will then take their money out of the market.
i am suspecting that if biden wins, there would be an immediate stock market panic followed by roller coaster style oscillations as the day traders come in and give haircuts to the casual investors, up and down. as the oscillations damp, people figure out that biden can’t actually do any harm until well after january 20, and trump is still in charge until then. i might be wrong, but if i am right, then leaving stocks in for a while after the election might be ok.
“Goldman Sachs thinks the stock markets would do fine with Biden and a DEM Congress, for what it’s worth.”
ROTFLOL!
goldman sachs, you say? given that YOU are always a 100% wrong troll here, my advice is generally to do the opposite of every piece of bullshit you post here, which means that if Biden is elected the stock market AND the economy are gonna totally crash ...
The sell off is already happening. Watch the futures. There will be an underlying growth in the opposite direction in the futures market. THAT is where the money is made.
Watch the private bond market. That is where the HUGE money is made.
“That indicates the market is comfortable with Biden being President.”
what it REALLY means is that the smart money knows that the polls are completely fabricated and that Trump is going to win re-election in a landslide, meaning that the communist, fascist, radical economy-destroying platform of the Democrats, which makes what Obama did look like a piker, won’t be implemented ...
Bkmk
I look at it sorta like the Founders did. They pledged their lives and fortunes rolling the dice against the largest army in the world at the time. America has been blessed by God.
Last Feast of Atonement, we fasted and prayed for our country with Jonathan Cahn. If Biden wins, it means America is being judged for abortion and sodomy. If Trump wins, we will have a reprieve for at least 4 years. I pray we will repent by then.
We cannot expect to continue to be blessed if we keep sacrificing our children to Baal and Sodom is our example. Jesus said He would come to judge as it was in the days of Noah and Lot. I'm afraid there is no protection or safe play with this future we face. In the Last Days a loaf of bread will cost a day's wages. Is it the Last days? We are about to find out.
Remember 9-11? Churches were full for a few months but then relaxed and went back to their old lives. If Trump wins, the markets will continue to expand, but if we won't repent, the next judgement will come and it will be worse. Israel denied Judgement for about 500 years until Assyria took the northern Kingdom and Babylon took Judah and the Temple was destroyed. If you want to see what God thinks about us, read Ezekiel 16. Solomon is a type and shadow for the Antichrist. It wasn't until Josiah, and 18 year old boy king that Israel repented.
What are you saying? Are you saying the stock was manipulated to take advantage of a stop loss order? Stocks in the $200 range can swing $10 several times a day. I would say the stop was way to tight and you lost it on a simple dip, prolly around lunch time. How many shares?
Common tactic by brokerage house to “sweep the stops”. Happens all the time.
I have traded professionally. The futures markets do this continually. Floor traders have control of “sweeping” positions” up for gain when the trend is known.
Sometimes it seems like using no stop is the best strategy. I mean, how often do complete instantaneous
collapses of positions really occur?
Which is why its nickname is Government Sachs.
i am also wondering if a trump re election is being baked in.
or that it does not matter to the market which allegedly caters to the 1%. —taking the case of under biden, in the sense that there would simply be more corruption but that the bottom 99% would suffer disproportionately as it allegedly has since nafta and gatt passed. under supposition that most people live paycheck to paycheck these days and have already borrowed or withdrawn from their 401ks.
(accurate and fair??)
vtsax seems just slighty better than spy. due to vanguard no load management?
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