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That is not necessarily the case, that is a pundits talking point. Since the 90s no Republican could win without PA, that was the assumption. There are multiple models for Trump to win. The traditional path is to win PA, FL, OH and TX. There are other models. We have written off NY, CA, IL and NY for years. So, to offset those states we have needed the larger Eastern and Central States. To lose PA is to assume many Trump voters died during COVID or changed their mind. It is to assume workers do not like working, they want the Steel and Energy industries sent back to China and they think Iran is our friend. Not likely, plus any poll of "registered voters" in October is worthless. I can think of only one reason to run with those this late in the game. If Trump's debate behavior turned Indies to Biden, well we should see a huge bump for Trump after Biden’s racist comments yesterday. We won't because its all BS.

I like everything you said. I also think the black vote will be ho-hum for Biden, if that. Are union households going to support Biden and his plans that would hurt PA? I see union workers supporting Trump in larger numbers than Hillary.

The polls are designed to depress Trump support and it only strengthens it.