[numberonepal]

I’m gonna have to agree with Sarah on this one. Let’s do the easy maff first:

2018 = 2839205 deaths / 365 days = 7779 deaths/day
2019 = 2855000 deaths / 365 days = 7821 deaths/day

Sept 24 2000 = 268 days
2033736 deaths / 268 days = 7589 deaths/day

What should be expected? Comparing 2018 to 2019 total deaths there is a 0.6% increase year over year.

Using 2019 deaths at 2855000 an increase of 0.6% should yield:
2855000 * .006 = 2872130 deaths for 2020.

2872130 deaths / 366 days = 7847 deaths/day expected for 2020.

7847 - 7589 = 258 deaths/day shortfall. To meet the 0.6% expected increase in deaths I’d say it’s fair that 2020 will be fairly close to matching 2019 if you consider a slightly higher death rate in Oct - Dec.

[stylin19a]

math only works if we do the number counting.
We don’t.
probably be an upward adjustment for Oct\Nov
and dec 31 will have a 2nd wave anomaly...

how else could 2020 end?

[foldspace]

Part 1 Intro

It's not about the poster, 'sarah hucklebee', it's about interpreting the CDC data as reported. We detected wobbly data, so went to the source. But first, let's recap.

Part 2 Late Night Math Errors Proliferate
Your guessing was unfairly close, but we find for the following: As the information is not static, and goes through data point revisions and error scrubs, it's a moving target! Consequently, the CDC numbers are 'as accurate' as can be when reported, yet when updated, even this snapshot post won't wash!

The initial data presented was a summation, so we did custom CDC searches at the [expert] level and found the raw source data at difficulty factor 6. Every precious comment on this mortality topic /slide, (except for greeneyes), made seemingly 'minor' mathematical errors which massively skewed the results.

The #1 analysis -since last night- presents excellent estimations, but had a precision error which jacked up the EOY estimated deaths. Not to belabor, but it's not 0.006, but actually 0.00556317701610132, which gives us 2870883 total, 7843/day.
That difference (between .006 and .005563) is 1247 lives.
Every life is important.

A further comment incorrectly guesses a newly introduced factor of .264, which is too low- the actual factor is .2677596.
That's a difference of 10,734 lives.
Every life is important.

Part 3 Towards A Data Approach

Source of CDC Monthly Mortality numbers for 2019 and part of 2020 can be found here:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/provisional-tables.htm

With a "12-month ending" total we calculate an average standard deviation BETWEEN each month of .06 ( 6% ), yet see too much variance in the source data month-to-month (MTM) before the 'rollup' into greeneyes survey.

Examples for this include:

• A ONE (1) month swing of 19% in 2019 Feb. - Mar. 2019
  

• High MTM variance in Feb. 2019: 9.69%, and Apr. 2019 -7.84
  

• High MTM variance in Mar. 2020: 10.2%
  

• VERY LOW variance in Nov. 2019 of .42%.
  

It's 'all over the map' ever since they changed the methods /updates /access to data.

From this we may conclude that the 'total years' number from greeneyes rollup report has smoother /more accurate data unencumbered by unreported /lagging updates, and that there is, in fact, no "EOY" JUMP in numbers.

Just think of it, greeneyes, you just saved somewhere between 1,247 to 10,734 lives or more in 2020.

Bravo!