I agree with your analysis. The big question is, how fair will the election be? That was the same question and concern I had in 2016. If the election fraud is kept to a minimum, I expect Trump to win easily.
There are rumors that patriots in the military intervened in 2016 to prevent the dems from cheating their way to victory in certain key battle ground states. If true, I would imagine the Trump administration is even more prepared for such attempts this time around, and is capable of preventing them from succeeding.
The 2020 election will be Florida 2000 on steroids and expanded to every swing state.