This is surprising.
The early tv ratings for the debate were down sharply - by 36%.
[Election watcher] David Chapman has an interesting twitter thread on this:
https://twitter.com/davidchapman141/status/1311347569289768960
David Chapman
@davidchapman141
The media believed the debate was going to be the most watched in history. Ratings were down. People are not as interested in this election as the polls and media are claimimg. The ratings were down for the conventions as well.
You could argue people have already made up their minds and don’t want to bother with the debates or conventions. But I would argue it’s something else. Look at the census response rates. They’re down 10 pts from 2010. Not a good sign for a VBM election.
The Ballot requests are high, but not as high as one would expect after the Democrats have pushed this for months. The pollsters assuming 165-180M voters turning out...it’s not gonna happen. The writing is on the wall. The average person isn’t interested in politics this time.
Joe Biden’s lead is based on the assumption that 165-180M turn out to vote. It’s not gonna happen. Unless you support Trump, you are not interested in politics this cycle.
It comes down to turn out and the only voters who are guaranteed to show up are Trump voters.