Posted on 08/11/2020 11:11:40 AM PDT by Openurmind
It is important for them to keep in mind the the House Speaker is not required to be member of the House.
Tucker Carlson or Donald Trump Jr., could serve as Speaker.
In the slim chance the GOP takes the House back in November then Kevin McCarthy will be the Speaker in January. No surprise in that.
Trump will do the heavy lifting as usual. The RNC is pathetic at mounting a national campaign.
You can’t know the future.
A very small bit of good news in AZ. McSally has finally started running ads on TV and instead of being13 points behind MR Gabby Giffords, now she is only 5 points behind. She hasn’t started on his gun-grabbing intentions yet as I suspect she is wary of his wife’s experience. But the guy who shot Ms Giffords was a far Left Loony whose Mom works for the city of Tucson. His behavior had been ignored for years. McSally has only been hitting Kelly’s China corruption, so far. I HOPE she runs ads showing his anti-2nd Amendment POV.
Yes the GOP is dead in NY. But some pundits are saying that if Trump can get 20% of the NYC vote , he could make it close as the suburbs and upstate are Trump country.
Same here, I have been keeping an eye on that as an Arizonian. we need to keep that republican seat bad.
Looking at the Senate, the GOP is ahead in Alabama, and competitive in Michigan, and may have an outside shot at New Hampshire and the Minnesota senate seat held by Tina Smith, particularly if Donald Trump has long coattails in the latter two states. The GOP just nominated RINOs in Kansas and Tennessee, so they probably win those two seats.
The GOP appears to be behind in Maine (Susan Collins), North Carolina (Thom Tillis), Colorado (Cory Gardner) and Arizona (Martha McSally). The ‘Rats are pouring money into Iowa to try to beat Joni Ernst, into Montana to try to beat Steve Daines, and into Alaska to try to beat Dan Sullivan. Then you have both Senate seats in Georgia up for grabs. The ‘Rat opponent in Kentucky, Amy McGrath, has raised something like $41 million so far, so this race will be obscenely expensive. The ‘Rats are also trying to beat Lindsey Graham in SC.
I live in Virginia too, and the sad fact is that the GOP loses a numbers game. Consider that there are 100,000 people in Loudoun County, mostly in the areas northwest and west of Dulles Airport, who weren’t there nine years ago. Most of these people came from Maryland or points further northeast, and most of them brought their ‘Rat politics with them. Therefore, unless Trump has enormous coattails in VA and outperforms his vote total here by 300k or more , Mark Warner is a shoe-in (it hurts to write that, since Warner is a scumbag of the highest order, in the Pantheon of scumbags with Time Kaine).
Looking at the House, these races don’t really start taking shape until 2-3 weeks before election day, so incumbents are the favorites. At least seven incumbents have been unseated in primaries, so the House can be volatile. The GOP losers were: King-IA; Watkins, KS; Tipton, CO; and Riggleman, VA. The ‘Rat losers were: Lipinski, IL (the only dedicated pro-life Dem in Congress); Engel, NY; and Clay, MO. All three of them will be replaced by people well to the left of them.
While there were a net of 40 seats that flipped in 2018, at the present time I rate about 35 of these seats are in play, and the GOP has to win a net 18 seats to regain the majority. Here in Virginia, the GOP’s best chance to gain seats are in the 2nd (Luria) and 7th (Spanberger). The 2nd is in the Norfolk-VA Beach area, and the 7th includes the western suburbs of Richmond and a number of Piedmont counties stretching to Fauquier county (in the Washington exurbs). The Rats will try to flip the 5th district (which is a triangle with northern apex at Culpeper, and includes Charlottesville, Lynchburg and Danville), as GOP libertarian-leaning incumbent Denver Riggleman lost the nominating convention to Bob Good, once an administrator at Liberty University (Riggleman, a distillery owner, officiated at a homosexual “wedding”, and thus became dead to the Christian Right.
There are a number of seats around the country which the ‘Rats flipped in upsets which are must wins for the GOP, such as: CA-39, CA-46, CA-47, CA-48, CA-49, FL-26, GA-6, IA-3, KS-3, MI-8, MI-11. MN-2, MN-3, NM-2, NY-22, OK-5, PA-17, SC-1, TX-7, UT-4, A-2, VA-6, WA-8. The best change for the GOP to flip a seat where the ‘Rat is retiring may be IA-2 (Dave Loebsack). AZ-1 (Tom O’Halleran) may be within reach, as may be PA-7 (Susan Wild, who is a personal friend of mine going back over 40 years). Again, large Trump coattails are needed. Finally, is this the election where Collin Peterson finally bites the dust after 15 terms (MN-7)? The GOP has two strong contenders running in the primary today, and the good people of northwest Minnesota can do something about Ilhan Omar by voting Peterson and Nancy Pelosi out.
Hope this helps.
And Sinema, without the ballot harvesting help and Fontes being the MCR, wouldn’t have won. The Maricopa County Recorder had too much power in 2018, and affected that election. He admitted he counted signatures that didn’t match because ‘that’s what they do in Tucson’ (can you say ‘VOTER FRAUD?’)
yes, I remember that. I have noticed though that she isn’t quite a full fledged knothead. She has made a couple common sense decisions and went against the wishes of her own party. She follows, but not quite lockstep. At least she thinks for herself a bit. :)
I don’t know if you remember her history. She was a ‘Proud Communist’ up until a year or so before she ran for the House in 2012. Her House seat was gerrymandered for her by the Redistricting Committee, which was supposed to be 2 Dems, 2 Repubs and 1 INDEPENDENT. Brewer appointed the ‘INDEPENDENT’ who was really a Dem. The 3Dems met in secret, drew up the new Districts in secret and the voted on them.......all totally illegal. They drew up 5 Districts that had Dem majorities. Brewer sued and an Obama judge threw the lawsuit out. The Left has had a lot of control in AZ ever since. Sinema is a tart and will go hard Left as soon as there is a Dem Pres.
North Carolina needs to out Cunningham as a phony. His Bronze Star wasn’t for combat. He was a JAG and received his Bronze Star for ‘organizing the courts in Iraq’.
I have the Senate at 52-48 with McSally moving up a tad. Right now lose AZ, CO gain AL w MI a tossup.
House: I think we’re about 10 short right now.
See post 33
You are more than likely right. Thank you for sharing that, I do remember hearing something about that fiasco.
Thank you!
Thank you!
Well done thank you!
Do you think Jason Lewis beats Tina Smith? Turnout yesterday did not look good at all for many GOP in this horrid state.
They can not be allowed to do this.
Look at all the misery that has been inflicted on the American people because idiot soccer moms gave Democrats the House.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.