That’s the normal process; but if the mail-in ballots can’t be counted and certified by the states in time, Electors cant be chosen by January 20th. If the incoming House and Senate cant be seated to choose the Pres.Elect/VP Elect because ballot counting still going-on this is when the Constitutional “Contingent” process kicks-in and the Speaker of the House becomes Acting President until the President and Vice President can be elected by the House and senate.
A special Congressional election in New York on June 2nd is still be counted and a tangle of challenges are going-on, withno end in sight.
Since the official end of the current Congress is on the 3rd. Pelosi is no longer the speaker of the house.
Here is what you are missing in your analysis.
The irony is that if the Democrats plan to create electoral chaos with their mail-in ballot scheme to overwhelm the post office and election vote counters, it will only harm the House and not the President or the Senate.
Since the entire House is up for reelection, there will be no House on January 3 to select a Speaker. More likely, the Republican states that do not use mail-in ballots will have ordinary elections and send their Representative to the House; they will not be affected by counting delays. It will be the Democrat states that can't count and certify their elections that will leave vacancies in the House. The Republican majority of those present will choose their Speaker.
In the Senate, only one-third of the seats are up for election. If those same blue states can't certify a Senator, the governor MUST appoint a replacement to fill the vacancy because Article V requires "equal suffrage in the Senate."
As for the President, the 12th amendment says "The person having the greatest Number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed." Blue states that cannot certify their Electors will not count towards the 270 to win. If 20 EV Illinois cannot count their votes, then the threshold drops to 260 to win, and so on with the other blue states. This will motivate blue state legislatures to hold special sessions to appoint their Electors directly, so that the President will be selected without issue.
So the Democrats will be giving up the House, but nothing else, if they follow this tactic. Furthermore, once they do get their counts certified and their Representatives sworn in, if they do finally attain a majority the Speaker still controls the agenda and may try to block a new caucus vote. Just because Democrats eventually retake the majority doesn't necessarily give them to power to immediately replace a Republican Speaker.
-PJ