https://twitchy.com/samj-3930/2020/07/30/bought-and-paid-for-tweep-who-didnt-believe-the-who-was-a-propaganda-arm-tweets-damning-thread-on-what-changed-their-mind/
The link above is from a Flubro - ConjunctionJunction. He posted it yesterday but it is good enough to repeat it today. The tweeter, @boriquagato, is worth a follow on Twitter.
Two highlights: 1. The herd immunity threshold (HIT) is overstated in many CV formulas at 60-80% infection rate because it doesn’t factor in previous immunity. Essentially many of us have partial immunity due to past exposures to other Coronaviruses. This is not CV-19 but it still provides some level of immunity. This is why the Pacific Rim countries have less CV-19 - they have immunity from the higher number of other coronaviruses that they have there. 2. The HIT is also overstated, in a sense, because the goal isn’t eradication which is what HIT is all about - it is instead more about significantly reducing the disease. This lower standard also serves to lower the threshold required to massively reduce the disease, but not eradicate it.
The actual threshold of infected people we need to essentially eliminate CV as a factor is in the 15-20% range, and definitely not 80%. This is how Sweden modeled it apparently and their model actually was pretty accurate in its prediction of how the virus would play out there.
Ping. Freepmail Impimp to go on the ping list.
What metric should be used to determine when to fully open?
The board has promised to address that issue after August 10th.
I want to see a study conducted which looks at whether or not the high incidence of brain lesions in the asymptomatic and minor symptom folks is contributing to the increased crime, violence and civil disturbances.