Osterholm believes the U.S. is eventually looking at between 800,000 and 1.6 million dead from Covid-19. That means either he expects fatalities to continue at the same rate for another two years or for mortality to accelerate. Neither seems likely to me. In fact I think it would contradict the pattern of all previous pandemics.
I think his numbers are too high. I think the peak would be 200,000.