I've postulated for a while that the Chinese wouldn't deliberately let the dam fail because they do not want a disaster from one of their biggest bragging points of the last thirty years.
I also don't think Trump or the US would deliberately make the dam fail. It's not his style. He's surgical. Everything he's done has been to minimize civilian casualties, while taking out terrorists. The failure of this dam would create millions of civilian casualties.
Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. China made a dam that's guaranteed to fail. It WILL happen eventually.