Until reagan...
Posted on 07/09/2020 11:16:52 AM PDT by Signalman
President Donald Trump is almost certain to win reelection in 2020, according to a political science professor whose “Primary Model” has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996.
“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Stony Brook Professor Helmut Norpoth told Mediaite Tuesday. He noted that his model, which he introduced in 1996, would have correctly predicted the outcome of all but two presidential elections in the last 108 years: “This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.”
The exceptions include John F. Kennedy’s election in 1960 and George W. Bush’s election in 2000, when Bush won a majority of the electoral college despite losing the popular vote.
Not only will Trump win, Norpoth’s model suggests, the president will expand his margin in the Electoral College from 304 electoral votes in 2016 to 362 in 2020. That would be nearly identical to the 365 electoral votes former President Barack Obama won in 2008.
The model calculates a candidate’s chance of winning based on their success in early presidential nominating contests, putting former Vice President Joe Biden at a severe disadvantage because of crushing losses in his party’s first two presidential nominating contests. He won 15.8 percent of the vote in Iowa’s caucuses, where he placed fourth, and 8.4 percent of the vote in the New Hampshire primary, placing fifth. It wasn’t until the Democratic Party’s third contest, South Carolina’s primary, that Biden began racking up victories on the way to his party’s nomination.
The only other candidate to win the Democratic nomination after losing those two critical states was Bill Clinton in 1992, and under significantly different circumstances. Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin won his state’s presidential primary that year, but fell to a fourth-place finish in New Hampshire while Clinton surged to second.
Norpoth said his model succeeds by placing an emphasis on how much enthusiasm candidates are able to generate early in the nominating process, and by discounting public opinion surveys. “The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall,” Norpoth said. “The list is long and discouraging for early frontrunners. Beginning with Thomas Dewey in 1948, it spans such notables as Richard Nixon in 1960, Jimmy Carter in 1980, Michael Dukakis in 1988, George H.W. Bush in 1992, and John Kerry in 2004, to cite just the most spectacular cases.”
Until reagan...
Reagan very nearly DID die, only shortly after he assumed office, in March 1981, when he was subject to an attempted assassination by John Hinckley Jr. Did John ever get acknowledgement of his efforts by Jody Foster?
Ronaldus Magnus apparently beat the curse. As did Bush-43 and perhaps, Lord willing and the cricks son’t rise, so shall The Donald.
God I hope this guy is right!!
There is no prize for second place America just as there is no prize for second in air-to-air warfare.
This is political Armageddon for the US.
Thank you. That nails it.
Lord, please, guide and strengthen us.
Tatt
Trump has to win by 150,000 votes in the swing states otherwise the democrats will steal it...maybe 200,000
>...Model doesn’t account for Dim cheating, which will be epic...<
Is voter fraud protected by the 1st Amendment like anarchy is?
Interesting that it failed to predict JFK’s election. Papa Joe arranged that win with the help of Illinois.
>>Does that mean the next 20 spins are going to be black?<<
BLM.
Amen, Amen, Amen.
agree-pray and work-Dems will do two things that they didnt in 2016-hit midwest battleground and get out and vote because last time they were so sure they would win some stayed home
I hope and pray the professor is right.
Amen to that!
Both parties feel they are going to win in a landslide. This is going to be an incredible race. I can’t wait til December to find out. I predict we won’t know until them with the mail in ballot having to be counted.
What is your point?
Same story has been on Fox and other conservative outlets. The professor appeared on Laura Ingram’s show for crying out loud.
I just voted in a runoff here in Texas and masks were required. No probs. But yes, the general election in Nov. will be quite crowded.
The general election probably be like none I’ve ever seen. Early voting
will be interesting this time around. I normally vote early as I can
pick my time, etc.
I’ve seen churches that have a special Sunday during early voting and
after morning service they would all go to the polls to vote. It was a
process they had for many years as I understood it.
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