Either Spring with warner weather and more intense solar radiation (producing Vitamin D) has slowed the infection
or
There are millions of asymptomatic Americans that are building herd immunity.
I think it’s a combination of both. New York City is approaching herd immunity.
Probably both.
Actually, while those may be true, the more obvious factors are:
1) We already infected and killed most of the people in nursing homes, so it’s like we got “herd immunity” for that group.
2) We also seem to have high infection and completion rates in prisons, which are another place where it was easy to get infected. Prisoners didn’t die, maybe because almost every prison supplements diet with vitamin D.
3) We are now letting people escape the places they were most likely to get infected — apartment buildings, condo complexes, and other places where poeple were packed in and locked down.
What we need, and what I don’t think we will get, is a comprehensive list of WHERE PEOPLE WERE WHEN THEY GOT INFECTED.
Armed with that data, people could make informed choices on what was the riskiest things to do.
My guess is that church services, playing on the beach, grocery shopping, and working out at the gym would all rank VERY LOW on the infection list. Of course, because of the lockdown we don’t have good data.
But in Virginia, the top 3 places you got infected where nursing homes, medical facilities, and apartment buildings. If we had a subway, it would probably have made that list, like in New York city.
The states won’t give us this information, even if they have it, because it would show that the lockdown increased the chance of infection in most places.
And looking at the data, you would probably conclude that the best thing we could do to stop infecting people would be to shut down all public transportation.