Hope someone else finds it useful as well.
I'm going to try and post one of these a week.
I accept suggestions.
It’s becoming more and more clear that Covid-19 spreads from either close, prolonged indoor contact, as with a family member or office worker, or in other closed spaces.
Big box stores like Home Depot, with 50-foot ceilings and open floor plans (just divided by shelves of products that are not walls) are more like being outdoors, where any exhaled infected aerosols are quickly dispersed to harmless levels.
This video is only 7 minutes, watch it all, particularly when they introduce ventilation to see how fast the micro droplets are dispersed. That comes at 5:40. (It’s all in English after the first subtitled minute.)
I found the video in this excellent essay:
COVID-19 Superspreader Events in 28 Countries: Critical Patterns and Lessons
I also highly recommend this one. The author wrote it after studying the above essay on super spreader events.
The Risks - Know Them - Avoid Them
https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them
What I take away from the video and the 2 articles is that there is virtually no risk of being infected while outside unless you are in a really densely packed venue such as a crowded wedding or funeral for a good period of time with an infected carrier.
Inside, there is little risk in grocery stores, people are just not crowded together for a long period. I would worry about being infected by a beautician or barber who was an asymptomatic carrier. That gives you the time and proximity for a good chance to become infected. I’d only do it if both of us were wearing N-95 masks, not loose surgical masks with plenty of side leakage.
The biggest risk is in packed offices, like call centers, or in church with singing, etc. The Washington State choir practice super spreader event is very telling.
Or a nightclub, like the Austrian example from above, where an asymptomatic bartender infected a bunch of his customers. In a loud nightclub, you have to lean close to a bartender to be heard, and you are practically yelling at one another, expelling vastly more droplets than in normal conversation.
Another takeaway is that the risk of catching Covid-19 from touching a surface and then your face may be greatly overestimated. In all of the super spreader events, an infected carrier was in a tight, closed place breathing on his family, friends or coworkers. In the case of the Korean call center, microdroplets infected 90% of the people on his side of the call center floor, and none on the other.
The above 2 articles were very eye opening. I hope folks will watch the video and read them.
So, the decline in New York, while it's real, is exaggerated because they have done millions of tests and are running out of susceptibles, whereas New Hampshire has greatly expanded testing in the past week and therefore are discovering "cases" that may have existed for some time.
PCR is not a test of cure - not for this disease, nor for any other. It's GREAT for diagnosis, but not very useful after that.
bkmk
Being familiar with Wisconsin, that chart is very misleading. It actually reflects the increase in testing capacity. Per the state’s website:
https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/data.htm. Chart at bottom right of that page.
4/13 - 3,898 lab tests available
4/14 - 6,753 lab tests available
4/21 - 7,898 lab tests available
4/22 - 10,837 lab tests available
5/2 - 11,347 lab tests available
5/5 - 13,797 lab tests available
I bet if there was some way to correlate the data, that curve that started dropping on 4/5 reflects an actual drop off of infections, but was masked by the increase in testing. Look at the drop continuing after the last major increase in testing on 5/5. They haven’t stopped testing at the higher rate (5/14 was 13,382 tests). It’s that the masking effect of the testing increase went away.