Hmm, that is a little complicated. I cannot insert a table with my numbers (that is beyond my html skills), but I can insert a screen shot:
To generate this projection, I set an R0 value of 2.5 and determined that one round of infection was occurring every 9 days. I do not have all of the actuals because I did not start keeping records until Mar 12. However, you can see that the actuals were close to the projected numbers through Apr 2.
Social distancing measures began to be widely implemented during the last week of March. Since the virus has an incubation period of 2-14 days, the effect of social distancing started to become apparent on Apr 11, with a 26% drop in actual cases vs. projected. While the decrease might have been taking place earlier, I am only looking at 9 day incremental changes for my projections. At my last analysis on Apr 29, the actual number of cases was 78% below projection. This means that the social distancing is working.
This same data is presented in the graph below. I prefer graphs for presenting information in an easily understandable format. Also, I can use the equation on the graph to make a comparison of projected vs. actual on any day, but have kept the 9 day increment just because there are a LOT of numbers by now. I also have not made an adjusted model to project case growth under current conditions.
I must stress that we are not out of the woods yet, and if we stop the quarantine now, case growth will pick right back up again.
Worldwide case growth is still on an upward trajectory, but the growth is slowing. US case growth is decreasing, which means that our policies are effective (despite all of the complaints about them). I think the President needs to be out there front and center, stressing the success of the social distancing. If you want to see the trajectory graphs, I can post those, too.
