Since about April 3, the growth has been linear, not exponential, because of, as you point out, all the mitigation. Once that mitigation is removed... well... I'm still going to socially distance until I see what the trend turns out to be. I expect, like you do, that it will be exponential again.
Most restaurants, retail, etc, has been closed for about a month.
That said, we have gone from 15 cases on March 15 to just over 8600 yesterday.
Trump and Dr. Birx recent statements confirm everything we already knew.
The next two to four weeks will tell us how bad it will be.
Praying for the Hot Weather to slow things down.