Can I ask why you think objecting to “doing nothing to stop the virus” (which I take to mean being comfortable with what we are doing now) would lead to an outcome that is worse than what we have now? I am not arguing uncritically that what various jurisdictions have done is a mistake, but I am wondering why, if you are certain, you are certain that the shutdown measure taken to this point have been worthwhile.
To do nothing about the virus is to let it spread uncontrolled, with the result that millions of people would end up dying. The ways viruses spread is well understood; this one is a respiratory virus and spreads the way any other respiratory virus spreads. In order to stop the spread, those routes of transmission must be stopped.
I know that the social distancing measures are working, because I have been keeping records since Mar 12. On April 29, there were 3.1 million cases of Covid-19 worldwide. But if the virus were spreading at the same rate as before any social distancing measures were implemented, there would have been around 14.5 million cases by that date. This is how I know that quarantine is working.