First, the axioms:
1.) An estimate divided by an estimate yields garbage
2.) An estimate divided by a reliable number yields an estimate
3.) A reliable number divided by a reliable number yields a reliable number
The postulates:
1.) CDC estimates are just that, estimates
2.) Census Bureau numbers are fairly reliable
Definition:
Overall morbidity rate (OMR) = CDC estimate of deaths divided by the population of the US expressed as a percentage
Asian Flu 1957 CDC estimate=116000 Population=171984130 OMR=0.067%
Hong Kong Flu 1968 CDC estimate=100000 Population=205805755 OMR=0.049%
As of the last report CDC estimate=60057 Population=333456000 OMR=0.018%
“Asian Flu 1957 CDC estimate=116000 Population=171984130 OMR=0.067%
Hong Kong Flu 1968 CDC estimate=100000 Population=205805755 OMR=0.049%
As of the last report CDC estimate=60057 Population=333456000 OMR=0.018%”
1) The Covid19 death toll in the US is increasing, while deaths from the other flu seasons you mention 52 and 63 years ago are not increasing any more.
2) We obviously took drastic actions 6 weeks ago to control the spread of the virus. Unless you think those actions were useless, the death toll would be higher if not for the actions.
Please recalculate the OMR for us in 2 weeks.
I love your axioms list! It puts this travesty in to an even clearer perspective.