[wastoute]

Or it could have been incredibly dangerous but it is turning into much less dangerous. So what we have accomplished with our efforts is to “reboot” the epidemic to a “new” one with more favorable Ro and CFR. Let’s hope for that because people have pretty clearly done all they are gonna do. With a CFR of less than one percent the argument to “just drive on through” is going to carry a lot of weight, at least at the beginning.

[Zhang Fei]

[With a CFR of less than one percent the argument to “just drive on through” is going to carry a lot of weight, at least at the beginning.]

---

I keep hearing about this CFR number, but of the major EU countries in only Germany has a CFR significantly less than 10%.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

And in Germany’s case, the same people are being tested multiple times, so the question is whether these people are being counted twice, if they test positive, negative and then positive again, thereby inflating the denominator, i.e. the infected number. Whereas you can only die once, so the numerator’s (i.e. dead) generally not inflated. Note also that Germany is counting the co-morbidities as the cause of death rather than the motive force behind the co-morbidities reaching a critical stage, i.e. the coronavirus, so the numerator is being tamped down as a matter of policy. That’s the reason behind a guy from Helsinki’s observations, re Nordlanders:

---

[The numbers mean nothing since Sweden stopped doing tests long ago. It’s strange how a lot of people here have realized that Sweden just makes up crime statistics but haven’t realized that Sweden does the same at pretty much everything. No data, no problem is also the attitude of the rest of Scandinavia and Germany so their numbers can’t be trusted either.

Even deaths can be covered up because a lot of people who die are going to be elderly who haven’t been tested and they’re not planning to test most of the dead. Curiously the people who are dying after being tested positive are disproportionately migrants

I suspect that it turns out that Sweden is in fact doing it right that shielding the elderly instead of shutting down the economy is better in the end but it doesn’t mean that the disease is sparing Sweden or that the low numbers mean anything, to the contrary, they’ve decided to let it spread and to keep their estimates of the real number secret. We’ll maybe know them after the epidemic once they start publishing studies – but only if it does turn out to be the right bet.

If corona turns out to be deadlier then it will be the thing that pops the entire “Scandinavian model” bubble. People abroad have been making the mistake of trusting Scandinavian governments and their invented statistics because Scandinavian people are honest in person.]