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To: SeekAndFind

One persons “facts” are another persons lies. One persons “lies” are another persons facts. Grain of salt on just about everything anymore. But not a bad lay out of information.


3 posted on 04/21/2020 12:00:50 PM PDT by rktman ( #My2ndAmend! ----- Enlisted in the Navy in '67 to protect folks rights to strip my rights. WTH?)
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To: rktman

Dear SeekandFind:
Why are you posting the exact same nonsense EVERY DAY and saying it is “new”?
Ioannidis is embarrassing. The Santa Clara study is flawed for several reasons.
1. The tests have a false positive rate supposedly 2/371 or .5% - this data is from the manufacturer of the test
2. This sample was 4,000 people, but there are facts relating to 243,000 people in a city of 9 million which prove that Ioannidis is wrong.
NYC has 13,683 Covid deaths already which is .15% of the population of 9,000,000. This is the lowest possible infection mortality rate assumed every single person in NYC is infected.
243047 people have been tested and 132,467 tested positive,
Only people with symptoms are being tested in NYC and only 54% of those with symptoms are positive. The rate of infection for those without symptoms is obviously lower than the rate of infection in those with symptoms of the disease.
If 54% of the entire city is infected (implausibly high) then the infection fatality rate is .28% (.15%/.54)

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-data-map-04202020-1.pdf
The quoted death rate of .1% for seasonal flu is the number of deaths over the number of SYMPTOMATIC flu cases. Those without symptoms are not part of the denominator. It is estimated (see link below) that 75% of regular flu cases show no symptoms. This brings the infection fatality rate for regular flu from .1% to .025% if you count infected people instead of just symptomatic people. Covid19 is at least 10 times deadlier than the flu, you can distort the numbers however you want, you can believe whatever you want, but no one can make a plausible argument that Covid19 isn’t 10 times deadlier than the seasonal flu, no matter how hard they try.
https://www.nhs.uk/news/medical-practice/three-quarters-of-people-with-flu-have-no-symptoms/
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html


4 posted on 04/21/2020 1:19:09 PM PDT by brookwood (Obama said you could keep your plan - Sanders says higher taxes will improve the weather)
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