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To: LilFarmer

“People leaving Guayaquil, Ecuador after government let up lockdown 2 days ago. (Estimated 12k fatalities there)”

Guayaquil is warm and humid year-round, with a pronounced rainy season Jan–Apr. April high is 89F and low is 75F.

I guess it takes temperatures in the upper 90s to kill the coronavirus.

New York City is 8.3 Million.
Guayaquil is 2.2 Million


383 posted on 04/22/2020 6:37:16 PM PDT by DEPcom (Are we there yet?)
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To: DEPcom

“I guess it takes temperatures in the upper 90s to kill the coronavirus.”

There was never any guarantee that this virus would be significantly modified by temperature and humidity. Unfortunately.

There was a study published a little while back that gave numbers, but the per degree and per percent humidity modifiers to the (then assumed, not verified) R0 were pretty small and it would take very high temperatures and nearly 100% humidity to knock it down under a R0 of 1. Since then I believe the estimated R0 has been revised upwards. :(


423 posted on 04/22/2020 8:30:14 PM PDT by calenel (Don't panic. Prepare and be vigilant. Join the war effort. On the human side.)
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To: DEPcom
Re: 383:

"I guess it takes temperatures in the upper 90s to kill the coronavirus."

This has some additional info:

"Stability of SARS-CoV-2 in different environmental conditions"
- see https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666524720300033?via%3Dihub

and the Supplementary appendix is here:
https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S2666524720300033-mmc1.pdf

If you refer to Table A., at 37C, after 1 day the virus titer has decreased almost 50% from the value recorded after 1 hour. After 2 days, the virus titer was undetectable.

Please note this research was in controlled conditions so as normalize data as much as possible. So, the results in the "real world" would be different as to the titer that is measured.

444 posted on 04/22/2020 9:19:36 PM PDT by Fury
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