Recording the numbers of those who die with Coronavirus will inflate the CFR as opposed to those that died from Coronavirus, which will deflate the CFR.
Report from the Italian National Institute of Health: analysed 355 fatalities and found only three patients (0.8%) had no prior medical conditions. See Table 1 in the paper; (99% who died had one pre-existing health condition): 49% had three or more health conditions; 26% had two other ‘pathologies’, and 25% had one.
The most common problems in the 355 who died were: 76% high blood pressure; 36% diabetes, and 33% ischemic heart disease.
The average age of deceased and COVID-19 positive patients was 79.5 years (median 80.5, range 31-103). The median age of those that died was >15 years higher than patients who contracted the infection (median age: died 81 years – infected 63 years).
Data comes from cases diagnosed by regional reference laboratories (N = 73,780). Source
Produced by the Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS) the data is collected through a dedicated web platform and includes all the cases of COVID-19 diagnosed by the regional reference laboratories. The data are updated daily by Region although some information may take a few days to come through.
Age effects by age band:*
*The Statistical model used is a grouped-binomial logistic regression with log-link function with main effects for age-band and sex (no two-way interaction terms). Deviance statistic is 30.9 on 6 degrees of freedom.)
| Females | Males | |||
| Age band | CFR (%) | 95% CI | CFR (%) | 95% CI |
| 30-39 | 0.26 | 0.16 to 0.42 | 0.43 | 0.27 to 0.69 |
| 40-49 | 0.55 | 0.43 to 0.70 | 0.91 | 0.72 to 1.16 |
| 50-59 | 1.23 | 1.08 to 1.40 | 2.05 | 1.81 to 2.33 |
| 60-69 | 4.02 | 3.71 to 4.34 | 6.67 | 6.22 to 7.15 |
| 70-79 | 11.86 | 11.26 to 12.50 | 19.71 | 18.98 to 20.47 |
| 80-89 | 17.94 | 17.11 to 18.80 | 29.81 | 28.78 to 30.87 |
| >=90 | 19.41 | 18.05 to 20.88 | 32.26 | 30.01 to 34.68 |
| Marginal estimates of the case-fatality rate by age. | ||||
The risk ratios give the ratio of case-fatality rate in one age-band with the case-fatality rate in the reference age-band (here set to age 60-69).
| Category | Risk ratio | 95% CI |
| Age 30-39 | 0.06 | 0.038 to 0.10 |
| Age 40-49 | 0.14 | 0.11 to 0.17 |
| Age 50-59 | 0.31 | 0.27 to 0.35 |
| Age 60-69 (Reference) | 1.00 | – |
| Age 70-79 | 2.95 | 2.7 to 3.2 |
| Age 80-89 | 4.47 | 4.1 to 4.8 |
| Age 90+ | 4.83 | 4.4 to 5.3 |
| Female | 1.00 | – |
| Male | 1.66 | 1.58 to 1.74 |
| Rate ratio estimates (95% CI) for CFR under independence model | ||
For example, a ratio of 4.47 (aged 80 to 89) means that the case fatality rate is 4.47 times higher than those aged 60 to 69. For people aged 40 to 49 the case fatality rate is (1 – 0.14)*100 = 86% lower than in people aged 60 – 69. Similarly, the case-fatality rate for men was 66% higher than the case-fatality rate in women.
| Age band | Cases (n) | Deaths | CFR (%) |
| 18-29 | 474 | 0 | 0.00 |
| 30-39 | 1068 | 0 | 0.00 |
| 40-49 | 1819 | 0 | 0.00 |
| 50-59 | 2193 | 5 | 0.23 |
| 60-70 | 780 | 6 | 0.77 |
| Total | 6334 | 11 | 0.17 |
| Distribution of cases, deaths and case-fatality in health professionals – data is in the consolidation phase and does not include cases with unknown age | |||
Waiting for the FearBros to debunk this study. It should be entertaining.
My God - TMI!
Thanks for posting, this is a keeper.
The county I live in here in central Tx. Has 170 cases. 50 of those have presumably recovered, showing no symptoms or fever for 72 hours.But 16 have died. Or almost 10% Some did have other serious health issues,and were in their 80’s. Still left about half though, or around 5%. That isn’t good. I realize it’s just a small sampling, but it’s where I live,and local news.
So as the actual case data, which may itself be inflated depending how they assign what the primary cause of death is,
its best case as bad as the flu, worst case maybe a couple times worse.
XX