The point of the article is that it's not good enough.
Something I came across.
Whether the process is called a model or not, public policy decisions and lawmaking inevitably involves an attempt at predicting.
This will always be flawed, but usually, the people involved in this sort of business planning have a reasonable handle on the assumptions and variables.
That was not the case with COVID-19. Just a couple days ago Fauci admitted that the crystal ball gazaer doctors don;t know what fraction of the population is infected. The assumption has been that the fraction obtained from testing only symptomatic people was the correct fraction. IOW, the assumption has been 100% of people infected become symptomatic.
Dumb assumption - it should have been exposed and explained as being “super overcautious,” and that the numbers would of course come down, we just don;t know if they come down 10% or 10,000%. That would have been honest.