The Spanish Flu didn't really have a lasting effect on the US. The Great Depression did.
Without the mitigation measures currently being practiced, there will be millions of Covid-19 deaths, not a mere 200k. Since no one is immune, in theory, the entire population is susceptible to catching it. With a (current) worldwide death rate of 6.74%, and US rate of 4.958%, we are talking about millions of deaths. Plus, there will be many more millions of disabilities, since those who recover from serious cases of Covid-19 are likely to suffer permanent damage from the disease. And if you don't think the 1917-1919 H1N1 pandemic had a lasting effect, I say otherwise. Influenza costs tens of billions per year and remains one of the most researched diseases, with researchers and government policy makers highly concerned about a repeat of that pandemic. (Covid-19 is more deadly than the 1917-1919 H1N1.) When we wrote up pandemic guidelines, we did so with the 1917-1919 pandemic in mind. We continue to closely monitor influenza because of the illness and economic burden it imposes.
I'm amazed and disgusted at the same time of the economic ignorance displayed by so-called conservatives of economics and the moral component of free enterprise. This economic engine is taken for granted, the result just assumed...by leftys, I used to think. It appears the same is true of so-called conservatives.
I focus on the medical aspects because I am, by training, a medical researcher. That said, one of our considerations in the medical research field is economics. Other than the 552,264 people worldwide who have recovered from Covid-19, no one is immune. Therefore, the entire population is susceptible to it. (Not everyone will get it, for various reasons unrelated to the biology of the disease.) The illness lasts from 2-6 weeks, during which time the patient is unable to work even if they are not sick enough to warrant hospitalization. Typically, about 2.5 million people die in the US (with an unavoidable related economic burden on the economy). Each million Covid-19 cases would cause an extra 67k deaths--and our country has something like 330 million people, so there is a potential of 22 million deaths. I can't say there is an upper limit of that many deaths, since the death rate is still increasing. Do you really think that millions of deaths in excess of the annual average are going to happen in an economic vacuum? And what about all of the excess hospitalizations, the excess use of medical resources--are all of those without economic impact? Do you seriously think those issues are not considered when the decision is made to quarantine?
Yes, there is economic disruption due to quarantine. But as long as people remain healthy, they are clever and adapt. My son has been delivering food. At first, after quarantine started in Maryland, the number of deliveries dropped off since so many restaurants are closed. But restaurants can still make food for take-out, so he's actually delivering more than ever now that more people are ordering from home. Many companies that I do mail order business with have sent emails to tell me that due to the pandemic, they are overwhelmed with deliveries, so my shipments will be delayed. I see other signs that people are adjusting. And in the end, we will have conquered the pandemic and the economy will pick up again (assuming we don't allow the left to use the situation to make a big power grab and permanently cripple the economy). However, in the alternate scenario--where we allow the disease to run rampant and take no measures to stop it--I don't see the economy picking up nearly as quickly. Because those extra people who are dying represent years of investment of education, training, experience, and expertise that they take to the grave. Families are disrupted. Etc.
One, you do not understand the economic downside and the inevitable effect on our politics. Your post reflected wishful thinking.
Two, whatever credibility 'experts' had for forecasting is gone. We've seen how the sausage is made, and we're not buying it.