[mrsmith]

That NY ‘dump’ of cases sucks.

[mrsmith]

https://twitter.com/SawyerHackett/status/1250235063112957953
Pic of Las Vegas homeless sleeping in parking lot- with empty hotels in background.

Seems that could have been handled better in the pandemic.
Just saying. Not my call.

[amorphous]

I went back a couple of days but did't see where NY made a large dump. Today, many states had increases. New Jersey for sure had a large increase. From reading the blurp worldometers issued about NY, it appears their thinking is to distribute the additional numbers according to the date the deaths occurred. Not sure what that will do to their historical data...I guess is all gets updated.

Black Agnes' take on what may have caused the increase makes sense to me, especially considering, as Lil noted, it was the Easter weekend.

Your suggestion to give my graph of projected fatalities a chance, is starting to make mores sense now. I may have been trying to chase the numbers too closely. :)

So I'm thinking some sort of averaging over several days may help to settle down these large variations in data. Waiting to see what tomorrow brings, for now.

[amorphous]

I think the referenced posted immediately following is evidence the daily fatality index is indeed useful for predicting the spread of the virus (this is about the 3rd or 4th time it has been very accurate). It's the main metric I use in the projection algorithm. I've also just implemented averaging of the index for projections. Projection below is based on last night's numbers from worldometers.info.

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260 posted on 4/6/2020, 2:32:42 AM by amorphous [At time of post, there were 10,871 total US deaths, 1,255 deaths on the 6th, and a US DF index of 11.54.]

After changing the ND/TD score value in the algorithm I use, I have revised numbers for 10 April of 17,328 instead of 20,000, and for 15 April, 27K instead of 37K.

https://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3831993/posts?page=260#260

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Currently, at time of post: USA Total 27,549, Today 1,502