Marc Lipsitch from Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health wasn’t only involved in the big fake scare that up to 70% of the world population could get infected by COVID19, and that 2%, or around 109 MILLION people could die, he was also involved in the ICU beds’ scare:
18 Mar: New Yorker: The Coming Coronavirus Critical-Care Emergency
By Benjamin Wallace-Wells
When the coronavirus outbreak first began, in December, in Wuhan, China, Ruoran Li, a doctoral student in epidemiology at Harvard, paid particular attention. Li’s research has focussed on tuberculosis, but she is originally from Shenzhen, a city of more than thirteen million people on the southern shore of mainland China, bordering Hong Kong. She gave an online seminar on the epidemiology of the outbreak in February, arranged by a Harvard student organization, and began to closely follow the social-media accounts of people in Wuhan...
During the peak of the epidemic in Wuhan, in mid- to late February, Li calculated that two thousand and eighty-seven COVID-19 patients required intensive care every day, usually including ventilator support. That meant that Wuhan’s medical-care centers needed about 2.6 intensive-care beds for every ten thousand adults in the city.
Li took her results to one of her advisers, Marc Lipsitch, who put her in touch with other epidemiologists, among them Eric Toner, at Johns Hopkins, who specializes in studying hospital capacity. Together, in a paper released on March 10th, Li, Toner, and four co-authors, all from Harvard and Hopkins, worked to apply the rates of bed need in intensive-care units from Wuhan to major American cities. According to a 2010 report that they cite, there are 2.8 critical-care hospital beds for every ten thousand American adults, and a separate study, from 2015, suggests that those beds generally have a sixty-five-per-cent occupancy rate. That means a Wuhan-like event in the U.S. would stretch, and perhaps overwhelm, many American I.C.U.s...
The upper bound, they calculated, would be 4.9 critically ill people per every ten thousand...
12 Mar: Buzzfeed: The Coronavirus Outbreak Could Spread To Millions In The US. We Don’t Have Nearly Enough Hospital Beds If It Does.
Models suggest that the US could be headed toward 150,000 COVID-19 cases by the end of the month, with only 45,000 ICU hospital beds nationwide. But there are some things we can do to help.
by Dan Vergano
Another model from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health suggests that a “moderate” scenario for the coronavirus pandemic, akin to a 1968 flu pandemic, could lead to 1 million people in the US requiring hospitalization this year. A “severe” outbreak would hospitalize 9.6 million people...
“A little more alarm is needed,” said epidemiologist Caroline Buckee of Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health. “We need people to start taking personal responsibility for social distancing right away.”...
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/danvergano/coronavirus-hospital-beds-icu
https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-coming-coronavirus-critical-care-emergency
following links to 21-page PDF, but note Lipsitch’s funding:
Harvard: The Demand for Inpatient and ICU Beds for COVID-19 in the US: Lessons From Chinese Cities
Citation: Ruoran, Li, Caitlin Rivers, Qi Tan, Megan B Murray, Eric Toner, and Marc Lipsitch
PDF p16: Funding and acknowledgments
(Marc Lipsitch) was supported by Award Number U54GM088558 from the National Institute Of General Medical Sciences and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CK000538-01) coop agreement...
https://dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/42599304
New Yorker reporter, Benjamin Wallace-Wells, has a “famous” brother, David/NY Mag:
12 Mar: NY Mag: Intelligencer: America Is Broken
By David Wallace-Wells
What we are seeing right now is the collapse of civic authority and public trust at what is only the beginning of a protracted crisis. In the face of an onrushing pandemic, the United States has exhibited a near-total evacuation of responsibility and political leadership — a sociopathic disinterest in performing the basic function of government, which is to protect its citizens...
Things will get worse from here. According to a survey of epidemiologists released yesterday, the coronavirus outbreak probably won’t peak before May. That doesn’t mean it will be over by May, of course, but that it will be getting worse and worse and worse over the next two months, and for much of that time, presumably, exponentially worse...
And for all of that time, the country’s response will be commanded and controlled by Donald Trump.
Trump is, of course, the last man in the world you would want in charge right now. In an extremely illuminating interview with Gabriel Debenedetti published this morning, Obama’s Ebola czar Ron Klain described his response to that threat, which he suggested was a relatively good model for how the U.S. might have responded to this one. That response began with 10,000 public-health workers sent to fight and investigate the disease. This administration has sent none, which means it has been, practically speaking, flying blind about the nature of the coronavirus and the challenges it represents to public-health systems. In fact, it’s worse than that; for all intents and purposes, the administration hasn’t been flying at all, spending the last three months sitting by entirely idle and indifferent, rather than scaling up testing regimes, issuing protocols, and preparing for a major surge of patients by developing contingency plans to expand hospital capacity around the country wherever it became needed. If reading about Ron Klain makes you wish he was still in charge, you are surely not alone...
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/coronavirus-shows-us-america-is-broken.html
David Wallace-Wells wrote a lengthy, ultra-alarmist gloBULL warming article for NY Mag, and a book of the same name - “The Uninhabitable Earth” - which was too extreme even for Michael “Hockey Stick” Mann:
12 Jul 2017: WaPo: Doomsday scenarios are as harmful as climate change denial
By Michael E. Mann, Susan Joy Hassol and Tom Toles
(Michael E. Mann is distinguished professor of atmospheric science at Pennsylvania State University and director of the Penn State Earth System Science Center. Susan Joy Hassol is the director of Climate Communication LLC. Tom Toles is the editorial cartoonist for The Post)
The New York magazine article (”The Uninhabitable Earth” by David Wallace-Wells) paints an overly bleak picture, arguing that climate change could render the Earth uninhabitable by the end of this century. Its opening story about the “flooding” of a seed vault in Norway leaves out that one of the vault’s creators told NPR “there was really no flood.” It exaggerates the near-term threat of climate “feedbacks” involving the release of frozen methane. It mischaracterizes one recent study as demonstrating that the globe is warming “more than twice as fast as scientists had thought,” when in fact the study in question simply showed that one dataset that had tended to show less warming than other datasets has now been brought in line with the others after some problems were corrected for. The warming of the globe is progressing as models predicted. And that is plenty bad enough...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/doomsday-scenarios-are-as-harmful-as-climate-change-denial/2017/07/12/880ed002-6714-11e7-a1d7-9a32c91c6f40_story.html
yet that didn’t stop Mann from going on Morning Joe with Wallace-Wells and happily going along with the alarmist flow:
begins with Lesley Stahl/60 Minutes interview with President Trump and continues with attacks on the President; parts of interview repeats after 4m44s:
VIDEO: 6m15s: 21 Feb 2019: MSNBC: Morning Joe: ‘We are entering into an unprecedented climate’
Authors David Wallace-Wells and Michael Mann join Morning Joe to discuss the realities of climate change.
https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/-we-are-entering-into-an-unprecedented-climate-1445411907673