Fun stuff! But it’s GIGO - case counts have at least as much to do with prevalence of testing as with prevalence of the disease.
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While that is true, we have an official count of a bit less than 500,000 cases. We have 330 million Americans.
Yes, testing would change the count but not the fact that we are nowhere close to seeing a large percentage of the population as survivors of infection. Not even close.
This analysis is, unfortunately, correct. What he doesn’t know and we don’t know is how the current slowdown/shutdown will affect us long term - months to many months. But his analysis is absolutely based on the correct methodology. At least IMHO.