The IHME model is now showing no significant bump in May, and has the west coast already at peak, where as previously they were shown reaching peak in early to mid May. New cases are already trending down in CA and WA. Only Oregon, with almost insignificant infection numbers, and Arizona, peak in May. Not sure why, but AZ is projected to be worse than CA. Maybe due to “Snow Birds” and retirees.
Obviously, the IHME model has lost much credibility over the past month, but it appears some states have gone beyond flattening the curve, and bent it downward.
I guess we will soon see what happens when some areas start incrementally opening things up in May and June. If we have effective drugs in the fight, a 2nd wave should be manageable.