Quarantining the healthy? Why?

Vanity | April 7, 2020 | Swordmaker

[central_va]

18 to 49 looks like 1% pushing 2%. So you can’t read a simply linear graph LOL!!!

[ctdonath2]

There are some sticking points. School being compulsory, it takes a gov’t mandate to drain that viral cesspool; I was facing an ugly fight with local bureaucrats if they hadn’t closed when they did. We’re smart enough (and introverted enough) to withdraw from society, but many aren’t - and to prevent hospital overload (on the way toward herd immunity) most must be told how to behave.

I appreciate the rugged individualism sentiment; under current circumstances the population at large needed to be told to back off for a while.

[DiogenesLamp]

But not very harmful to 99% of the population....

And how do you know that? I've read articles claiming 21 million cell phone accounts in China have ceased in the last couple of months. I've seen many articles claiming that China is grossly lying about their casualties.

[CJ Wolf]

“But not the country or the world. That’s where this has gone off the rails.”

It is a bit mad. Cant say I disagree but we find ourselves here.

[ctdonath2]

Note: I’m all for the government making sensible recommendations and halting compulsory gatherings etc; change that to police enforcement and we have a serious problem. Local mayor tried to go there and got shouted down.

[DiogenesLamp]

If they do not, it ends up like what happened in China where probably more than 1 million died.

I've seen several articles claiming that 21 million Chinese cell phone users have ceased activity on their cell phone accounts.

Here's one of those articles.

https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2020/03/24/21-million-chinese-cellphone-users-disappear-in-three-months-of-pandemic/

[DiogenesLamp]

The quicker the virus passes through the healthy part of the population, the quicker it will pass.

You first.

[Vermont Lt]

That, and we hardly lie about how many have died.

[central_va]

China, like Free Traitors™ they cannot be trusted. Ignore China, just look around. This is virus has cased some death but it is not a “deadly” pandemic.

[mdmathis6]

Because we had no early means of antibody testing and therefore no means to separate the healthy from the sick...

[DiogenesLamp]

How does the quarantine help or make sense for two 20 year olds who are also nonsensically also social distancing?

https://www.enidnews.com/oklahoma/tulsa-quiktrip-store-employee-dies-of-coronavirus-company-says-in-email/article_5e9be0b4-78e3-11ea-800f-97232d240267.html

[semimojo]

Even the guy behind the model has admitted he was WRONG!

That's not true.

This is what Neil Ferguson, the man behind the Imperial College study, said:

"I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19.

This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged."

His model for the UK deaths from COVID is now 20 times LOWER than his original prediction upon which they made all of their policy decisions.

Do some research.

The Imperial College Covid-19 study provided a range of possible deaths in the UK of 5,600-550,000, depending the timing and type of mitigation strategies implemented.

The paper made 80 separate projections based on the combination of measures taken. This was and remains useful information for policymakers.

The model hasn't changed, only the policies and behaviors of the population.

[central_va]

Yes, like the CNN photo journalist that zooms in on the one child in a sea of military aged Syrian “refugees” there are a few exception that proves the rule THIS IS HARMLEES TO ALMOST ALL PEOPLE BELOW 40. Some young people die of the flu also, probably more than COVID. 7 teenagers die in vehicular accidents EVERY DAY. COVID does not take that many.

[DiogenesLamp]

That, and we hardly lie about how many have died.

I trust our numbers. I absolutely do not trust China's numbers. I've read a couple of articles regarding the extent and timeline of China's lies about the Corona virus.

Also, you didn't seem interested in that link I sent you. Would you relate the reasons why you didn't see that article as significant?

I see someone has posted it here.

[Swordmaker]

These two erroneous assumptions and possibly others, required drastic measures to prevent overloading the healthcare system.

Those estimates come from an organization that until a few months ago just did not exist. The organization that produced those graphs you saw displayed on all the MSM news screens and various government news conferences that showed the huge predicted reddish/pink spike in COVID cases and the more controlled orangish bell curve below the line of hospital capacity if we took drastic action???

It was a web organization called COVIDACTNOW.ORG. It’s an organization that did not exist before February 2020, but which was founded by a coterie of DEMOCRAT ACTIVISTS!

Founders of the site include Democratic Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and three Silicon Valley tech workers and Democratic activists — Zachary Rosen, Max Henderson, and Igor Kofman — who are all also donors to various Democratic campaigns and political organizations since 2016. Henderson and Kofman donated to the Hillary Clinton campaign in 2016, while Rosen donated to the Democratic National Committee, recently resigned Democratic Rep. Katie Hill, and other Democratic candidates. Prior to building the COVID Act Now website, Kofman created an online game designed to raise $1 million for the eventual 2020 Democratic candidate and defeat President Trump. The game’s website is now defunct.

They used that UK data set to make their predictions, plugged into a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet, with completely flawed assumptions. THAT is what is driving all of these political policies... but not a single one of their projections is at all close to the reality of the real world now being experienced. But that is why everything is now shut down!

[redinIllinois]

.

[BDParrish]

I do have one paper in the archives of asymptomatic transmission established in a brief period immediately prior to onset of symptoms. That individual was not a super spreader. I have nothing on a super spreader event where the individual was asymptomatic. It is too early probably for that to have been documented for COVID-19.

All the information I have on SSE’s with SARS in 2002-04 involved people who were showing symptoms. CDC says all super spreaders were symptomatic and all were febrile and coughing at least.

I have a paper reporting a percentage of COVID-19 positives without fever but other symptoms when they present. This is different from SARS, so different that in the early days of this pandemic, some were denied a CoV19 diagnosis as it was thought impossible. We have learned better.

I know that you will think I am disputing you, but if you can ignore that and help me track down any facts I will be so very grateful. Perhaps you could suggest where I might look lest I impose upon your time.

[semimojo]

18 to 49 looks like 1% pushing 2%. So you can’t read a simply linear graph LOL!!!

So in your expert reading of the graph you get that 2% of the 18-49 year old population is going to be hospitalized?

Wow, that's probably over 2 million people.

Seems serious.

[Swordmaker]

Because without a cheap way to TEST, we don’t know who is healthy and who isn’t. So your question is meaningless.

No, it isn’t. We don’t have a cheap or easy way to test for any of the influenza viruses. Any definitive flu test results usually come back about the time people are recovering from their bouts with the bug. Most influenzas are most contagious while you are prodromal, prior to showing any symptoms. Just as one is with COVID19.

This hype about COVID19 is the same. The social distancing is fine as a preventive. Taking the cleaning of hands and not touching your face, again, reasonable. Hunkering down at home is absurd. Closing the economy, insane. Preventing people from walking on the street is insane. That is completely over-the-top insanity. Arresting people who are paddling a surf board in the ocean because they are NOT AT HOME in fear, and encouraging people to take a walk for exercise, and in the next breath threatening people out taking a walk with arrest is schizophrenic, to say the least, but we have Progressive politicians doing all of those things!

Here, in Utah, the government just closed Zion and Bryce Canyon National Parks, after keeping them open until just this last weekend, because “it’s difficult to maintain social distancing”. . . What? We can’t be trusted to maintain a six foot distance between ourselves in a National Park? Frankly, my lady and I were at Bryce Canyon on a weekend, just about a month ago, there was no problem keeping six feet away from other people there??? It’s not hard. If there are too many people, wait a minute or two and they will move on. But no, the government nannies, have to CLOSE what is essentially a road with turnouts and lookouts. Give me a break! They did close the hiking trails about a month ago due to having to pass to close on very steep (like 1000 foot drops) when hiking of people going two ways. Reasonable. But the entire parks? You can see most of Zion without getting out of your car!

[metmom]

What healthy people have been quarantined?