Hopefully, you turn out to be right, but you still have to account for the higher level of contagion going into the future, as well as all the idiots out there who still refuse to social distance (presumably continuing to hang out in large groups). Estimates of R0 for the Chinese Crud range anywhere from 1.7 to 5 or 6, with some dependence on how densely populated an infected area is.
And the sooner we get ultimately accurate numbers (I suspect that a CDC modeling of the outbreak afterward will have the CFR at around 0.2 to 0.3% rather than the nearly 3 percent officially tallied, when all the uncounted cases are estimated). And the sooner this thing goes away, the sooner we can open our economy back up. Go away, Chines Crud, go away!
I do NOT want to see what the government does in case the anti-vaxxers precipitate a truly major measles outbreak. Measles has an R0 between 12 and 18!
And to cgbg I offer my heartfelt apology for being a bit ... uh ... "testy" in my post, though I stand by my position. Upon re-reading it I searched for the FR "I-Shouldn't-Have-Posted-That-Damn-Thing" button but, alas, I couldn't find one. My lame excuse being that after three weeks of house arrest and a marginally successful attempt at reducing my fine wine intake (I worked for Matt Gallo for a few years a decade ago), I've become a little too "oldmanish". Cheers and continued good health to you both. GA