“SK didn’t kick this initially by doing absolutely nothing while the virus went away on its own.”
The unmitigated R naught is between 3 and 5.
The available health system holds the mortality to about 1%. Once full, it escalates from there to the point that if you warrant a ventilator, you’re dead already.
That could be as high as 2% or more.
“The available health system holds the mortality to about 1%. Once full, it escalates from there to the point that if you warrant a ventilator, you’re dead already.
That could be as high as 2% or more.”
I disagree. SK’s CFR has been converging with the DCR and they are at 1.8% right now with something over 40% of their cases left to resolve. They will be lucky to keep it to 2%. The DP is at almost exactly the same CFR, with about 10% of their cases left to resolve. They might keep it under 2% but not by much (population is small enough that even a single death is a big bump).
The only thing that’s going to move CFRs down to 1% or better is a real effective treatment - HCQ+AZT or one of the others being tested. I wish they could hurry up.
It’s too bad we don’t have accurate numbers from anywhere. Not even the US, since in the hotspots cases are outpacing testing and we are left to guess how many of the positives are asymptomatic (I am assuming pretty much none in any place where there is HCS saturation like NYC).
If you assume that in NYC (to continue the example) the reported cases are all serious or critical and that there are another 4 times as many mild or asymptomatic cases, you do get the DCR under 1%. Those are some pretty generous assumptions, though. CFR is still around 26%, so there is a long way to go, yet, to find out what the final numbers will look like.