In a world first, the Swedish government has announced that it is going to officially distinguish between deaths “by“ and deaths “with“ the coronavirus, which should lead to a reduction in reported deaths.
3/16, Sweden has its 3rd death.
3/20, 16, 0.98% fatalities/case
Date case dth rcvr dth/case
3/23 2046 .27 .16 1.32%
3/24 2299 .40 .16 1.74%
3/25 2526 .62 .16 2.45%
3/26 2840 .77 .16 2.71%
3/27 3069 105 .16 3.42%
3/28 3447 105 .16 3.05%
3/29 3700 110 .16 2.97%
3/30 4028 146 .16 3.63%
3/31 4435 180 .16 4.06%
4/01 4947 239 103 4.83%
4/02 5568 308 103 5.53%
4/03 6131 358 205 5.84%
4/04 6443 373 205 5.79%
Interpret that how you like. Sweden may be still fully tracking, or it may not be.
I should have noted my COVID-19 data came WorldMeter
COVID-19 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Where is your data from?
I also realized I used an old pop figure for the US. We have 5 million more people at 328.2 million. It only change the case # from 0.1018% to 1.001%.
Not a numbers post - just impressions of a guy from nordland on German and Swedish stats:
Even deaths can be covered up because a lot of people who die are going to be elderly who haven’t been tested and they’re not planning to test most of the dead. Curiously the people who are dying after being tested positive are disproportionately migrants
https://www.thelocal.se/20200310/timeline-how-the-coronavirus-has-developed-in-sweden
“Thirty-three people have died so far after testing positive for the new coronavirus, including 15 in Stockholm. Of those, at least six were Somali-Swedes, a board member of an association for Somali-Swedish medical doctors in Sweden told public broadcaster SVT’s current affairs programme Agenda.”
Instead of locking down they country they simply advised people on social distancing and a lot of the “new Swedes” decided to just ignore the advice. They’re blaming language skills and lack of information but mysteriously the lack of language skills doesn’t seem to hurt East Asian and East European migrants in the same way. I’m seeing various migrant groups behave in rather different ways on the streets of supposedly locked down Helsinki, too, and it’s all very predictable.
I suspect that it turns out that Sweden is in fact doing it right that shielding the elderly instead of shutting down the economy is better in the end but it doesn’t mean that the disease is sparing Sweden or that the low numbers mean anything, to the contrary, they’ve decided to let it spread and to keep their estimates of the real number secret. We’ll maybe know them after the epidemic once they start publishing studies – but only if it does turn out to be the right bet.
If corona turns out to be deadlier then it will be the thing that pops the entire “Scandinavian model” bubble. People abroad have been making the mistake of trusting Scandinavian governments and their invented statistics because Scandinavian people are honest in person.]