[pa_dweller]

Forty-four minute YT video showing data from Kinsa, Inc. smart thermometers. Encouraging news of apparent positive effects of social distancing.

[ifinnegan]

Just tell us the data.

[goodnesswins]

Surprising dividend? Let me guess....LESS FLU, also.

[No.6]

Among the reasons I am rapidly developing a loathing for YouTube is that their monetization scheme encourages horrible winding diatribes once confined to 3am infomercials.

[vpintheak]

Sure thing. Only 18 months to go! I mean, as long as any single person can be saved, right? If you don’t think so, you hate old people.

[Oshkalaboomboom]

The country I am living in, Spain, is probably the most extreme example of social distancing in the world. They mean it and they are enforcing it. If it's working at all it's very slowly. Here is the latest data. You can find a daily update here:

Official figures released by the Spanish Health Ministry at 11.45am on Saturday 4 April confirm 124,736 known cases of Coronavirus (Covid-19) in Spain, 7,026 more than yesterday.

Friday had seen an increase of 7,472 confirmed cases over Thursday – a rise of 6.7%, which had continued the downward trend of increased infections seen in the past few days in Spain. This downward trend of infections seems to be continuing with the figures announced on Saturday morning.

11,744 people have now died from the pandemic (up by 809 from yesterday – an increase of 7.3%, but the lowest figure of the past week). Yesterday’s figure was an increase of 932 – and the day before 950. It is the eighth day in a row, however, that the increase in the number of Coronavirus deaths for a 24-hour period in Spain has been above 800.

There are 57,612 people who have required hospital treatment in Spain for Coronavirus, of which 6,532 are currently in intensive care. 34,219 people have now made a full recovery, which is 3,706 more than yesterday. Friday’s figure for recoveries had been an increase of 3,770 over Thursday.

[TChad]

One reason that this is interesting is that it has nothing to do with the number of COVID-19 tests being given. The more tests, the more positives for COVID-19, and the worse things look -- just because there were more tests.

From the thermometer data, it appears that the typical increased body temperatures from regular flu are being significantly reduced by social distancing, and that COVID-19 is -- at least -- not making up for that reduction. If so, the body count from regular flu + COVID-19 + social distancing may wind up being lower than that from regular flu alone.

If high temperatures from COVID-19 are being reduced at the same rate as those for regular flu, then this damn plague is turning around. However, I don't think you can get that data from body temperatures alone.

[Chad_the_Impaler]

Already sheltered millenials forced to shelter in place. What happens if looking-at-your-phone is ALL you can do.

[conservatism_IS_compassion]

Summary:

• At https://www.healthweather.us/?mode=Atypical you find a map of the US which indicates - discounting the expected influence of the flu - which have more than the historically predictable number of people with fevers in each county (for which they have data).

• Below that map, you find a graph of % of US population which had a fever, vs. time since February 15.

• Whittle also showed a map showing the change by county in the number of people having fever over the past week.

The upshot is that the number of people having a temperature got atypically high when Covid hit - but since the institution of social distancing, that number has dropped below what historical data would lead you to expect.

So much so that it seems likely that the public reaction to Covid has saved more lives than Covid itself has carried off. Because so many fewer people than expected have contracted the flu this past month.