Drill down a bit. Death rate probably close to 1% in America.
I say probably because it’s all estimates.
Reading that American deaths may be underestimated by a factor of 4.
That sounds really bad until the follow up, which is American cases may be underestimated by a factor of 10, or more when asymptomatic case estimates are factored in.
Death rate can’t be near the serious/critical rate of 5%.
The majority of serious/critical patients aren’t dying.
Confirmed vs deaths is 2.57%
Confirmed = 277621
Deaths = 7141
“Drill down a bit. Death rate probably close to 1% in America.”
Still way too early.
I hope we are able to achieve 1% over the long haul. But right now our DCR is 2.8% and CFR is 41%. We need to do a lot better. We are still in the “low hanging fruit” phase in many of our myriad outbreaks, so the weak are dying off fast. Next phase is the long resolution period for many of the cases, some of whom will not make it. During that period the CFR and DCR will converge as the number of resolutions catches up to the total number of cases.
If we get an effective treatment the death rate could plummet (let’s pray this is the course we take) and the CFR and DCR converge somewhere below the 2.8%. If not, they will most likely converge somewhere in between, closer to the 2.8% number, but higher. If the HCS (or any of them individually) fails we get a sharp rise in deaths. We’ve seen this play out exactly this way in a number of countries, some of which is ongoing.
My current estimate of the total infected, including those in the incubation period, is just under 2%. This estimate includes generous assumptions favoring the FluBros. I believe the number is currently much smaller, but as more and more locations test only the more serious cases, the actual number will approach the estimates (ironically, estimate becomes more accurate over time as testing falls behind).
Containment is STILL key.