New York needs a geographical quarantine strategy now. No one in or out of the city.
Completely agree. And if the New Yorkers complain about it ask them if they criticized the Chinese government for blocking off Wuhan.
I do not understand how you think it’s feasible for everybody to be quarantined from everybody else somehow, but you don’t think a much smaller segment of the population can quarantine themselves under Plan B. That’s not logical.
Like I said before total isolation is impossible for everyone, young or old. The idea behind the quarantine is not to stop the spread of the virus entirely but to flatten the curve enough so that our finite number of ICU beds are not all taken up by CV patients. This cannot be done if people are out socializing and partying like those idiot spring breakers. My brother is still going to work because he works in an industry deemed essential. Unfortunately my brother lives with my elderly parents and one of his coworkers was recently diagnosed with CV. So yes even under the strictest of quarantines my parents might get it anyway. The difference is with social distancing there is a greater chance there will be enough medical resources to help them. If that means living off my savings for a few months and taking a hit in my stock portfolio that's a sacrifice I'm willing to make.
If what happened to the Spanish Flu happens to this one, this strategy could prove disastrous. We have a huge opportunity to allow young people to get this disease in a harmless form and get immunity to it. Then if it mutates or comes back later, they will be protected themselves and also create herd immunity to protect others.
Do we know that CV behaves like Spanish Flu though? If it does then sure it makes sense to change our mitigation strategy to build herd immunity among those who are likely to survive it. But we don't know that. Even those who survive CV often have permanent lung damage afterwards. I'm not risking that and an astronomical medical bill based on a "maybe it's like the Spanish Flu." Because if it turns out that you can be reinfected with a different strain then I will be risking my health for nothing. Unless I hear from someone with an actual medical degree that herd immunity works for this virus I'm not breaking quarantine until the medical professionals say the curve is flattened enough. I don't hire clowns to do my taxes and I don't let businessmen make my health care decisions for me.
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-recovery-damage-lung-function-gasping-air-hong-kong-doctors-2020-3
I saw the thing about lung damage before. I am unclear if they’re saying that is something that is also mainly in the elderly patients and ones already deemed to be more vulnerable. It seems likely that damage is only in people with severe symptoms. We know the under-20 crowd are said to almost always have mild symptoms and many others as well. It’s also reasonable to think that physical damage sustained during the infection may heal over time.
I don’t think anyone can say how this virus will behave. But there is also the basic concept of herd immunity. If we have the opportunity to let the virus pass through a population that it is likely to leave unharmed, then there is a big benefit to doing that. They may be immune to future strains and then they create herd immunity that can protect others.
And if we had $2 trillion to spend, it seems that could have been used to set up living quarters for younger people who live with older people to temporarily live in while the virus passes through them.
One of the hugest mistake in all of this was shutting down the colleges and sending those kids back to live with their parents. The colleges were a perfect laboratory in which to start creating herd immunity.
It’s all about relative risk. We may never develop a vaccine. And if we don’t, then this more direct way of introducing immunity into the population would be much more preferable than either a years-long shutdown or never letting young people visit old people. Or having mixed-age families continue living together and living in fear they’ll spread the disease around or trying to hide behind masks and cleansers.