[wastoute]

I think the numbers just aren’t big enough yet. Not that I want them to get higher but the kind of “noise” we are seeing tells me there just isn’t enough data yet for the curves to settle down. Yet the “slope” as you say tends to indicate we will be getting bigger numbers and the curves will settle in very nicely. I had hoped two weeks ago we would top out this week. I was wrong.

[semantic]

When I use an 8 day lag with Italy (the one I originally showed you weeks ago that tracks the series from each respective country's first recorded CV death), I keep coming up with projected results far lower than the IHME models for both the 4/16 peak and 8/1 total.

Since I've already reverse engineered the IHME models on another sheet - for both 4/16 peak and 8/1 total - I knew what their growth assumptions & sequencing looked like.

Curious, I went back to my model that tracks (gross) US to Italy, and started extending the date lag. Voila, I matched up almost perfectly with the IHME model by going back 18 days.

Now, I don't know how one would really begin to address that basis, because those are pretty significant assumptions. For one, adding 10 extra days arbitrarily places us in a period where Italy was still experiencing significant growth. However, as the blue line shows, Italy has actually been bouncing around a top now for 14 days.

Notes: Yellow line (18 day lag) plots peak US at 2.8k+- 4/16, then drops over 115 days to zero out at 94k. Red line (8 day lag) falls far short.