I agree with you that this is virus has been an over reaction from the start. It IS little worse then the common flu in Italy and China because they received "Antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE)" both banned by the FDA in 2004 and 2012 which makes a mild infection life threatening decades later (given the cells have a long memory)
It's very sad for me to read FR in the last few months
The death rate is death/total contracted. It is NOT death/confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19 is the symptoms from SARS-CoV-2) To calculate the death rate you need figures on the total number of people that contracted the virus. Lets take the worst case Italy which received the ADE. From these reports that makes the SARS-CoV-2 death rate at approximately 0.2% to 1.3% of those infected in Italy(corrected.) Which is far worse then the flu. Again, this is Italy. It will be far less in the States, Germany, UK and South Korea which didn't receive ADE.
From this report "individuals have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 up to 28th March, representing between 1.88%and 11.43% of those infected "
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Europe-estimates-and-NPI-impact-30-03-2020.pdf
From this report: "We estimate 86% of all infections were undocumented"
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/24/science.abb3221
At least TRY to get your statistics right
It's very sad for me to read FR in the last few months all this feeling based drivel
“I agree with you that this is virus has been an over reaction from the start.”
For the record, you are certainly not agreeing with me.
why are u using 2017-18 stats 80K ?
2019-20 stats are 11K-22K
Nope. You’re reading into your biases.
Look at the total death rate in Italy, YOY. Tell me why 16x as many people are choosing to die this year than did on average for the prior decade - yet only 4 of the 16 are attributed to CCP-19. So what explains the 12x death rate from other causes? Occam’s Razor says they are undercounting CCP-19 deaths big time.
We have a 100% tested cohort to generate stats from. 55% asymptomatic. 25% mild. 15% serious. 5% critical. 1.8% of the cases are dead with 11% left to resolve. We have the entire cohort, so we know there can be no new infections and that 1.8% can not go down, only go up.
We know that the best we can expect is a 2% CFR. We also know that there is no mass of hidden asymptomatics or we’d have hotspots popping up all over the place. Well, we knew that, but since Exodus NYC (thanks, de Blasio!) the whole eastern seaboard is polluted. I pray people had the common sense to stay as far away from anybody from NYC as they could. But I expect to see surges all up and down the coast starting right about now.
Flu infects about 20% of the population every year. We get around 100 deaths per day from the flu during flu season. So far about 1% of the US population is infected with CCP-19 (we don’t have any way to get an exact number, the estimate is based on some very generous assumptions about the current confirmed case count). People are dying from CCP-19 at a pace of about 1,000 per day right now. 10 times the flu with 1% infection rate versus 20%. That’s pretty bad.
Our HCS is designed to handle a bad flu season, not 11 simultaneous flu seasons.
Some definitions for you, so we will all be talking the same language. Case Fatality Rate is deaths over (deaths plus recovered). Deaths-to-Cases Ratio is deaths/(total cases).
The DCR and CFR converge as cases resolve. That 1.8% is the DCR for that cohort referenced above. The CFR is currently 2.1%. They’ll meet somewhere in between, barring a surprise spike in deaths among the unresolved cases.
In other populations the DCR and CFR don’t necessarily meet in the middle. In some cases they can both go below or above the range if a large number of cases are discovered. That is what will happen in NYS and NYC most likely. The CFR and DCR for the state of NY (currently at 75% (yes, 75%) and 2.7% respectively) should converge below that 2.7% as long as NY holds its HCS together. And that is without any cures or treatments beyond what we have, so we can hope for better numbers than that. But that is optimistic until they actually do it.