Replies

Just the facts, ma'am (or sir)!

FACT 1:

          3/31   4/1    today	
Deaths	  1,101  1,040  864 	(3/31 an anomaly?)
New Cases 25,151 27,005 28,698  (hint of deceleration?)

FACT 2:
All the official models are failing, by OVERSTATING the scale of the epidemic! But your FReeQ brother used a different approach: setting a sequence of models for the PURPOSE OF FAILING--thereby revealing in the fastest way possible the decelerating acceleration (second and higher order derivatives of a growth function I cannot write).

FACT 3: The numbers roll on ... illnesses and deaths being the easiest (and in some ways least descriptive) measures of the war we are engaged it ... like the nightly body counts from Vietnam ...

United States COVID-19 Confirmed Cases
	
Date    	Daily	Total	Reduced
        	Growth	Cases	Exponential 
        	Actual	Actual	Model
3/14/2020		 2,717 	
3/15/2020	 761 	 3,478 	
3/16/2020	 1,167 	 4,645 	
3/17/2020	 1,717 	 6,362 	
3/18/2020	 1,407 	 7,769 	
3/19/2020	 5,911 	 13,680 	
3/20/2020	 5,605 	 19,285 	
3/21/2020	 7,462 	 26,747 	
3/22/2020	 8,478 	 35,225 35,225 
3/23/2020	 11,107  46,332 44,031 
3/24/2020	 8,816 	 55,148 55,039 
3/25/2020	 13,870  69,018 68,799 
3/26/2020	 16,635  85,653 85,999 
3/27/2020	 19,363 105,016 107,498 
3/28/2020	 19,448 124,464 134,373 
3/29/2020	 17,892 142,356 167,966 
3/30/2020	 22,003 164,359 209,957 
3/31/2020	 25,151 189,510 262,447 
4/1/2020	 27,005 216,515 328,058 
4/2/2020	 28,698 245,213 410,073 
4/3/2020		 . 	512,591 
4/4/2020		 . 	640,739 
4/5/2020		 . 	800,924 
4/6/2020		 . 	1,001,155 
4/7/2020		.	1,251,443 
4/8/2020		.	1,564,304 
4/9/2020		.	1,955,380 
4/10/2020		.	2,444,225 
4/11/2020		.	3,055,282 
4/12/2020		.	3,819,102