[lepton]

Also, the CDC has a very good idea, within a range, of how many people die in each season of the flu. It will be a year before they can put a solid number to deaths for this winter but they have reasonably accurate totals for previous years.
2018-2019 was about 61k for instance.

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And that is at the upper end of typical flus. One recent year at the other end of the spectrum they had posted at under 10,000 deaths.

[TigersEye]

And in the ‘17-’18 season the death toll was 80k.