You are correct.
On March 21 it looked like Italy had peaked in new cases. Although the daily new cases are still high, March 21 does seem to be their peak. The trend is down from that date. I calculated that the US is about 8-10 days behind Italy, based on the date each country had a total of 150 cases. That meant the US peak might be March 29 through April 1.
We will see.
I think it will be later. People with second homes will be heading there. Some will be overnighting at motels, which would be difficult to clear of virus.
Also include foreigners with 2nd homes.