[AndyJackson]

The whole country deaths may be turn downward faster than expected if this is a seasonal virus, something which is still unknown.The problem with trying to deduce anything about whether this is a seasonal virus is that this is simultaneous with having taken vigorous public health measures starting about two weeks ago.

The whole thing is largely explained by the fact that social distancing started to have an immediate effect in new infections delayed by the 1-2 weeks for the symptoms of those infections to be expressed.

[wfu_deacons]

Vigorous social distancing certainly has decreased the transmission rate. My statement was intended to note that a further reduction in the transmission rate may be possible if the virus has a seasonal aspect to its transmission. Whether or not the warmer season has a substantial effect is unknown presently. It will be interesting to see how a country such as Mexico (my understanding is they are not taking substantial actions) fares during the pandemic.