Yes, Chris’s reporting and analysis is excellent. However, he has a bias, IMO, toward over-representing the future severity of the crisis, reflecting the same inclination as his Peak Prosperity economics blog since 2008. That was evident today in his estimate of undetected cases at six times confirmed, which lead him to estimate that we are only at 900,000 U.S. cases, while we need 35 million to achieve herd immunity. That is a big assumption on his part. The U.S. may already have had a minimum of ten million cases to date. The logarithmic total cases chart for Italy has already flattened, with Spain almost there. Deaths lag cases by around two weeks. This may indicate that the U.S. could have the 100,000 to 200,000 deaths estimated by Fauci today, rather than the estimate of one or two million of a week or so ago.
Praxeologue wrote:
“Yes, Chris’s reporting and analysis is excellent. However, he has a bias, IMO, toward over-representing the future severity of the crisis, reflecting the same inclination as his Peak Prosperity economics blog since 2008. That was evident today in his estimate of undetected cases at six times confirmed, which lead him to estimate that we are only at 900,000 U.S. cases, while we need 35 million to achieve herd immunity. That is a big assumption on his part. The U.S. may already have had a minimum of ten million cases to date. The logarithmic total cases chart for Italy has already flattened, with Spain almost there. Deaths lag cases by around two weeks. This may indicate that the U.S. could have the 100,000 to 200,000 deaths estimated by Fauci today, rather than the estimate of one or two million of a week or so ago.”
I’m looking for the link to the data, that shows the curves for Italy & Spain flattening.