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To: Black Agnes
I’m hoping the shutdowns/slowdowns have really decreased the number.

Shutdown effects should start to be seen 5 days in, full effect about 2 weeks. There has been a slowdown of the rate of increase in cases, from 50% a week and a half ago, to about 20% now.

There won't be an effect on the death rate until incubation time+disease course runs, maybe about 17 days after shutdown, fatality rate is behind the case rate. Death rate is at 1.75% now, and statisically has to increase. It will probably reach 3% of the cases identified.

Waiting to see the numbers flatten. Hope that starts happening. Sick of being locked down.

58 posted on 03/29/2020 10:18:43 AM PDT by Fido969 (In!)
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To: Fido969

Honestly never expected lockdowns.

Having seen what Singapore did early on with testing, contact tracing and individual quarantines, expected that here.

Obviously CDC wanted it to spread.

What do they do with their billions anyways?


69 posted on 03/29/2020 10:33:57 AM PDT by Black Agnes
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To: Fido969
Waiting to see the numbers flatten. Hope that starts happening. Sick of being locked down.

Yesterday was the 3rd straight day with only a small increase in daily new cases for the US. If we are "only" around 20,500 today, we might be seeing a slow down and flattening of the curve. Obviously, we are going to see hundreds of smaller outbreaks, each with their own curve, but hopefully none of them will be anywhere near as bad as NY. I assumed the USA had watched how other countries reacted to the virus, and would be more prepared. I think NY might have finally made it "real" for a lot of Americans.

146 posted on 03/29/2020 11:53:24 AM PDT by ETCM
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To: Fido969

On what planet does death rate statistically have to increase?

Deaths are a snapshot of infections (actual infections, including both tested and untested) that on average started 23.5 days ago.

In order for the mortality rate to increase, that would mean the denominator (# of infections) would have to have either been over counted in the past, OR would have to grow slower proportionately to the numerator (# of deaths) in the future, despite # of tests performed accelerating faster than both.

Or do you think that the # of deaths has been severely undercounted???

Honestly, the degree of mathematical illiteracy in this country is staggering.


319 posted on 03/29/2020 3:42:15 PM PDT by Go_Raiders (The fact is, we really don't know anything. It's all guesswork and rationalization.)
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