“Excuse me, Dr Birx...but are these models from the same “scientists” that predicted global cooling & global warming that turned out to be hoaxes?”
Her numbers are light, if the condition that “the government did not mitigate” were a fact. Fortunately, the government did mitigate.
Best results anywhere in the world for a first-world HCS that did not collapse - about 2% fatalities among the infected.
Penetrance of a “novel” disease, one for which there is no vaccine or existing immunity, 70% to 95%, depending on incubation period and contagiousness.
Now, that assumes people are milling around, willy-nilly, going to Mardi Gras, parades, church, school, shopping, Carnival, Spring Break, concerts, lectures, sporting events or running around hugging Chinese guys as a show of support. You know, stuff that would never happen during a global pandemic.
But, anyway, 0.7x.02x3.3e8=4.6 million. 4.6 million dead. If the government hadn’t mitigated and told people to wash their hands and avoid crowds. And that’s if the HCS doesn’t collapse.