Rather than insult, maybe ask him to explain. He is simply referring to Case Fatality Rate, which is rather simply calculated as Fatalities/Cases. Most cases have not “resolved”, and it is clear that not all remaining patients will survive. Some of them will succumb and the CFR will rise, at least among THESE cases. Hopefully, with improved treatment, we will do better in the future.
Weeks ago people proclaimed South Korea’s 0.7% CFR as “the real CFR” as opposed to the 2% to 3.4% claimed by various sources, even though only 1/4th of their cases had resolved. Some (mathematically illiterate) people even claimed it would go down. Now that cases are resolving, SK’s CFR has exceeded 1.5%, and is trending to reach about 2.4%.
Oh and “Go Raiders”. Looking forward to building some Las Vegas weekends around a few games.
I understand what you are saying, but if you are correct that is a meaningless assertion on his part, and even more deserving of chiding for mathematical illiteracy.
The data is never presented on a % of cases from such and such date, because there is no way of knowing which particular test date is associated with date of death.
In fact, I am sure there are many deaths that occur where test results arrive post mortem.
The only Case Fatality Rates people pay attention to are the most currently calculated based on that days numbers. Which are also meaningless, but at least almost everyone has agreed upon what to deride or crow about, depending on their nature.
The ONLY statistic that matters is daily rate of increase in deaths. The economy has to reopen, and we can’t do that until it’s clear the worst is over and we can keep it from rebounding.
I hope you get to see the Raiders in person someday. Sadly, It won’t happen until social distancing is not needed, so don’t book your room just yet.