I am looking at the state numbers here:
They are now large enough that I think we have a metric to compare relative undercounting of actual cases due to lack of testing.
It looks like hospitalization of positive cases is in the 15% range.
If a state has a much higher hospitalization rate then that should be indicative of a relative undercount (undertesting). Note: The hospitalization rate is not available for all states.
So, for example, Alaska is showing 6 hospitalized out of 102 cases. That suggests they are doing a good job of tracking down individual cases.
Arkansas is 11%, again suggesting they are on top of testing.
California, on the other hand, has an 18% hospitalization rate.
Other states with high hospitalization rates (meaning significant undercounts of cases):
CT (my home state) at 20%—they have admitted they cannot keep up with testing.
GA at 25%
LA at 32% (big undercount there)
MD at 22%
MS at 31% (big undercount there)
NY at 20% (testing like crazy but still can’t keep up..)
OH at 24% (significant undercount—I am expecting them to get hit much harder from the returned spring breakers)
OK at 33% (big undercount)
OR at 24% (they have tested heavily, must be looking in some of the wrong places)
PA at 20%
Big states with no numbers available: NJ, TX.