The chart below may better explain where a ND/TD rate of 25% (roughly the US current rate) would take us, if the rate remained constant - which it won't.
Disclaimer: I'm in no way projecting these numbers to be the final outcome. These numbers are simply based on a single factor (there are many more to consider). And that factor (ND/TD) changes daily.
My personal "feelings" of how high the Coronavirus toll may eventually be, are based on a previously projected peak of around 15 April by "professional forecasters". I had felt we may see 100,000 deaths at the peak. During the ensuing down slope, I surmised that an additional 100,000 deaths may occur before the end the current outbreak.
Again, no epidemiologist here, just some IT nerd who has worked with data. My "feelings" are subject to change, the further this progresses. The closer to today's date the numbers are, the more accurate they will be.
